For the first time in five seasons, the Central Connecticut program has broken into KenPom’s top 275. The Blue Devils recent road upsets over UMass Lowell (10% underdog) and Fordham (19% underdog) have led to an in-season ascension in two well respected rankings: 47 spots in KenPom land and 45 spots in Bart Torvik’s standings.
The climb is certainly warranted with the Blue Devils owning the second best adjusted offensive efficiency and third best adjusted defensive efficiency in the Northeast Conference. And it’s even better if you extrapolate CCSU’s data since their dismantling of Army on the road back in late November.
How exactly has Pat Sellers turned the program into a legitimate contender in year three? There are a number of factors I’ll break down here.
The Defense Is Playing Up
If we’re being honest, the defense has been a low hanging fruit of improvement for CCSU over the past decade. With Sellers’ latest batch of graduate transfers infused into the program, he may have finally found the right rotation to mimic those excellent Howie Dickenman defenses of yesteryear.
“We’ve been more aggressive on ball screen coverage, up on our pick and roll defense, our bigs are not sitting back, we’re up on the ball now,” Sellers says regarding the Blue Devils significant defensive improvement. “And obviously being older, guys understand the system now, they can figure things out…. They can make adjustments on the fly and that’s helped us a lot.”
Those adjustments have allowed the Blue Devils to move into KenPom’s top 250 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 107.6 points per 100 possessions, their best efficiency rating since the 2011-12 season. In layman’s terms, the squad has gotten more turnovers (on 18.8% of opponent’s possessions), protected the rim (getting a block on 11.7% of opponent’s possessions) and has done well to limit second chance opportunities (1st in rebounding defense in the NEC). It also helps that CCSU has the 86th best mark in Division I when it comes to limiting the opponent’s 3-point attempts with a 34.4% 3PA/FGA mark.
More specifically, the inclusion of newcomers Allan Jeanne-Rose and Jordan Jones has sparked a defensive revival in New Britain. Jeanne-Rose came with a notable defensive pedigree built on athleticism, intuitiveness and versatility at Fairfield whereas Jones’ quickness and instincts led to a second place finish last season in total steals in the Southern Atlantic Conference, a league that his Division II Coker University resided in.
Sellers explains how the two have benefited from one another based on a defensive drill executed to perfection recently in practice.
“The other day in practice we were doing some defensive drill and [Jeanne-Rose] screams at Jordan to switch (on defense), and Jordan switched and as soon as he switched the ball was right in his hands, he stole the ball. Jordan goes down and lays it up, and he comes back looking at AJ saying like ‘I can’t believe you did that.’ He’s like ‘I’ve never seen that before.’”
It’s no wonder both are making a massive difference when playing together. According to Hoop Explorer, the Blue Devils have given up 12.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor.
Experience can be invaluable and right now CCSU has an optimal blend of defensive stalwarts who’ve been honing their craft for several years running. The Blue Devils undoubtedly have top 2 defensive potential that could get them to the top tier of league contenders if they maintain that level.
Space and Pace is Finally Coming to Fruition
The transition game has become a weapon for CCSU.
It’s an unlikely place to start, yet Sellers credits his team’s efficient upswing in transition opportunities to an encounter with a Hall of Fame coach at a surprise birthday party. It was there in September that Sellers sat down with Jim Calhoun, his former boss at UConn, to discuss high tempo basketball at Howie Dickenman’s birthday celebration.
“I’m sitting with Coach Calhoun and he said ‘Pat, you said you want to play fast right?’” Sellers recalls of their discussion. “And I was like ‘yeah.’ And he said, ‘Well you better do fast break drills, you know what we did at UConn, at least 15 minutes a day at practice.’”
The conversation was a revelation for Sellers, especially after he perused UConn’s old practice plans back when he served – both as a DOBO and Assistant Coach – under Calhoun from 2004 to 2010. The Huskies back then were led by shifty, efficient guards such as Marcus Williams, A.J. Price, and Kemba Walker and rim running bigs like Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong and Hasheem Thabeet. UConn would annually reside inside the country’s top 100 of adjusted tempo thanks to a daily devotion of transition drills in practice.
Since installing high tempo drills in every CCSU practice after the chance encounter with his mentor, Sellers has witnessed the benefits.
“You can tell because now our guys are so good at getting the ball up, deep outlets and getting the ball up up ahead to open shooters. And our guys are rim running, so it’s because we practice it everyday,” Sellers says.
The proof is in the pudding – no one in the conference is more efficient in transition, and it’s led to CCSU getting out on the fast break one out of every five possessions according to Synergy. That’s the second best mark among leaguemates, and their points per possession (ppp) numbers in such situations lead the NEC and are 28th nationally. Just note the stark improvement from last season:
| Transition eFG% | Transition PPP | Transition TO rate | Poss Per Game | % of Time in Transition | |
| 2021-22 | 60.3% | 1.07 | 14.5% | 64.6 | 12.3% |
| 2022-23 | 58.3% | 1.06 | 12.0% | 64.2 | 12.3% |
| 2023-24 | 67.5% | 1.21 | 12.0% | 69.0 | 20.3% |
Once again, Jones’ insertion into the lineup has been a boon to the team’s prospects when running a high tempo offense.
“Jordan is such an elite athlete, he can get the ball from point A to point B so quick and fast,” Sellers says of his point guard, who owns a 59% eFG and an elite assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.7 in transition. “He gets the outlet, there are very few guys that can stay in front of him because he’s so fast and strong.”
Jones’ teammates have also benefited greatly, willingly running down the floor and finishing with superb efficiency. Run and gun basketball is a lot of fun when it’s executed well! Case in point:
- Joe Ostrowsky in transition: 79.4% eFG, 1.36 ppp, 9.1% TO rate
- Jayden Brown in transition: 78.6% eFG, 1.43 ppp, 8.6% TO rate
- Allan Jeanne-Rose in transition: 66.7% eFG, 1.19 ppp, 16.7% TO rate
- Kellen Amos in transition: 59.2% eFG, 1.11 ppp, 6.7% TO rate
Add it all up and Sellers’ opening press conference declaration of incorporating “Space and Pace” has officially taken shape. It’s obvious that the pace part is working, and the Blue Devils’ spacing has yielded a respectable 34% mark from long distance versus Division I foes. And just wait when Amos rounds into mid-season form with his perimeter jump shot as historic trends indicate.
The Blue Devils Are Cleaning Up Around the Rim
More credit goes to Blue Devils superfan Matt Mauro for enlightening me on CCSU’s rim numbers, thereby starting my deep dive:
It’s one thing to embrace the analytic friendly approach of nothing but “rim takes and 3s”, yet it means nothing if you don’t have the right personnel to execute such a philosophy. It understandably took Sellers 3 years to compile an efficient collection of slashers, in-the-paint finishers and playmakers to make CCSU’s shot profile more akin to scoring.
Now, the Blue Devils have taken nearly half of their shot attempts near the basket, which currently ranks in the top 94 percentile in all of college basketball. Given the near-the-rim percentages, it’s been a wise strategy to say the least.
| % Shots at Rim | Rim FG% | Points Per Shot (PPS) | PPS National Percentile | Dunks Per Game | |
| 2021-22 | 32.1% | 49.7% | 0.99 | 1% | 0.8 |
| 2022-23 | 38.6% | 54.3% | 1.09 | 14% | 2.2 |
| 2023-24 | 47.4% | 60.2% | 1.20 | 66% | 2.8 |
One player who’s been somewhat responsible for CCSU’s efficiency down low is junior center Jayden Brown. He’s made a career high 60.0% of his rim takes this season, up from 50.6% as a freshman. As is the case for a majority of collegiate bigs, Brown just needed more time to develop his game inside the paint.
“He understands how to play, he’s almost like a guy that would be in the ‘over 40’ league,” Sellers said of Brown, who’s shooting a career best 51.5% from inside the arc. “He just knows how to play basketball, it was just the confidence part, like finishing against contact and all of those things and now in his third year he’s much more confident.”
Additionally, Jeanne-Rose has done some heavy lifting at the rim (68.8%) with the league’s leader in KenPom offensive rating, Tre Breland, trailing just behind with a 65.4% mark.
The Blue Devils ability to get two feet into the paint on drives, both in the half court and in transition, has undoubtedly made the team more efficient as a whole. It’s no surprise that five Blue Devils are boasting a KenPom offensive rating north of 100.0 – when a majority of your shot attempts are within 6 feet of the basket, your efficiency will climb as a result.
It’s a new day in New Britain with CCSU in position to play meaningful basketball deep into the conference season. The preseason expectations of Sellers’ group were lofty, yet the Blue Devils have shown their upside after a splendid five weeks of non-conference basketball. If they continue to hit on all cylinders with respect to their defense, transition game and ability to finish around the rim, a return to the Big Dance would be a distinct possibility.
Get your popcorn ready – the NEC regular season should be exciting!
NEC Overtime! Blog 