Myriad NEC Tournament Thoughts: Evaluating Recent Performance and Players to Watch

Ah yes, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. Playoff time. When every eligible team in the Northeast Conference has a dream to reel off 3 straight victories and go dancing. This season the league was loaded with parity, that is until Merrimack ripped through the conference during the month of February. 

Ron Ratner has you covered here and here, but on the NEC Overtime! Blog I’d like to share some thoughts, numbers and key players as well ahead of the much anticipated single elimination tournament. 

The Latest Performance Snapshot

To start, one exercise I like to perform prior to the NEC tournament is to take a snapshot of a team’s last 4 weeks of league play. Obviously, this is far from a foolproof way to determine who’s hot going into March, but surely we’ll be able to decipher who besides Merrimack comes in playing well. Just look at this 8-game data… oh my…

	Record	Point Diff	Offense PPP	Defense PPP	Poss/Gm (NEC Rank)
Merrimack	7-1	+83	1.01	0.86	69.9 (3)
Stonehill	5-3	+19	1.01	0.97	66.5 (8)
FDU	4-4	+17	1.11	1.08	69.8 (T-4)
SHU	4-4	+10	1.03	1.01	70.4 (2)
SFU	4-4	-3	1.04	1.04	69.4 (6)
Wagner	4-4	+6	0.98	0.97	61.8 (9)
CCSU	4-4	-4	1.02	1.03	67.4 (7)
SFBK	4-4	-16	0.94	0.97	69.8 (T-4)
LIU	1-7	-85	0.90	1.05	71.9 (1)

A few notes based off this data:

• Merrimack is head and shoulders above the rest of the league currently. That’s obvious. The thing that struck me was not the 7-1 mark, but the Warriors’ increased tempo in the month of February. They went from playing their first 8 league games at a tempo of 63.1 possessions per game to 69.9 over its last eight NEC contests. Why? Gallo has given his underclassmen more offensive freedom in allowing them to attack with movement early in the shot clock, which has led to shorter possessions overall. It’s crystal clear that players like Javon Bennett, Jordan Derkack and Devon Savage are much more comfortable offensively than they were 2 or 3 months ago. All 3 players have at least a 10.0 increase in their KenPom offensive rating when going from non-conference competition to league play. It’s no wonder all three are typically logging at least 28 minutes per game these days. 

• One reason the lower seeded Wagner and St. Francis Brooklyn programs could be dangerous is each team is for the most part defending at a high level. The Terriers attempt to drive opponents off the 3-point line (26.8 3PA/FGA defensively, 1^st in NEC) and reject shots around the basket (11.7% block rate, 1st in NEC). Armed with the league’s second best adjusted defensive efficiency in NEC play, Wagner does well to extract turnovers and keep opponents away from the offensive glass (24.6% defensive rebounding rate, 1st in NEC) in order to limit second chance opportunities. Defense travels! 

• Sacred Heart has done a respectable job defending amid all of their injuries and a shortened rotation. With Nico Galette less than 100 percent – he admitted to Ron and I in the last On The Run Pod that he’s dealt with a pulled groin and lower back issues throughout the season – and Brendan McGuire presumably done for the season with a nagging hamstring injury, Anthony Latina must ride Kenny Womack a little more than anyone originally envisioned (more on him below). When the Pioneers hold opponents to under 1 point per possession, they are 8-3 on the season. 

• CCSU is 3-8 this season with games decided by 2 possessions or less. It’s been a major problem for Pat Sellers’ group, but recently they’ve done better closing out strong in the final minutes with their 3OT thriller over Stonehill and tight road victory versus FDU illustrating progress. The regular season finale loss to Sacred Heart was a hiccup for the Blue Devils however, as CCSU struggled to keep the Pioneers off the free throw line while missing some critical charity stripe attempts down the stretch.

Which Coach Will Rise to the Top?

This will be the most inexperienced field with respect to the head coaches competing in the NEC tournament. Only four coaches have led their teams in this playoff format, while four others come in with a record of 0-0. 

1. Rob Krimmel, 8-8
2. Pat Sellers, 1-1
3. Glenn Braica, 2-10
4. Anthony Latina, 1-7
5. Tobin Anderson/Donald Copeland/Joe Gallo/Rod Strickland, 0-0

It’s been a struggle in the single elimination format for Braica and Latina for various reasons. Braica got his two victories during St. Francis Brooklyn’s magical 2014-15 run that fell one possession short against Robert Morris in the final. While Latina has positioned his team well with respect to NEC tournament seeding – the Pioneers have earned a top 4 seed in 4 of the last 5 tournaments – the long-time head coach only has one playoff victory to show for it – a 61-59 squeaker over Mount St. Mary’s in 2020. Can either coach exercise those demons despite trotting out rosters that have been ravaged by injuries?

Copeland and Strickland may be new to this as head coaches, but Anderson and Gallo have demonstrated success in these formats when they led winning Division 2 programs. Gallo was 4-2 with one tournament championship in 3 seasons at Merrimack when the program was a NE-10 member, while Anderson won 6 East Coast Conference tournament championships and twice was the runner-up in 9 remarkable seasons at St. Thomas Aquinas College. Neither Gallo nor Anderson will be phased by the newness of the NEC tournament. 

Key Players to Watch

We already know the superstars of these NEC rosters. In this segment, I’m more looking at guys that mostly hover under the radar (with the possible exception of the first player listed). These are four student athletes that possibly have the power to advance their team into the next round of the conference tournament.

Maxwell Land, Saint Francis – It wasn’t a seamless non-conference season for Land, but the Red Flash guard has rebounded nicely against league competition to post a career high in KenPom offensive rating (108.9) fueled by a true shooting percentage of 55% that’s tenth among all NEC players. The absence of dynamic freshman Landon Moore has forced Rob Krimmel to play Land more than 80% of the team’s minutes over the past 2 months, and for the most part the junior has delivered with Land serving as the Robin to Josh Cohen’s Batman. When he plays well, Saint Francis does well as these splits illustrate:

–        In 9 SFU wins: 16.4 ppg, 51.4% 2PT, 48.6% 3PT, 1.4 A/TO

–        In 7 SFU losses: 10.3 ppg, 44.7% 2PT, 28.2% 3PT, 1.0 A/TO

If Moore does return from a finger injury for a quarterfinal showdown versus CCSU, expectations should be tempered given his absence over the past 12 games. With Ronell Giles exhibiting inconsistency off of last season’s knee surgery and a tough ankle sprain in November, a lot of the Red Flash’s hopes may hinge on Land’s performance in NEC tournament whether that’s fair or unfair. If the lefty gives Krimmel efficiency with an ability to score anywhere on the floor, then SFU has a chance to go dancing.

Devon Savage, Merrimack – Who’s the best 3-point shooter in the Northeast Conference? If you said Savage, then you are paying attention as the James Madison transfer has been a godsend for a Merrimack team that really struggled to make open shots in the first half of the year. Over the team’s past 3 games – all wins – Savage is on an incredible run, converting 16 of 25 (64%) of his long distance attempts, with 15 of those makes coming from an assist. Not only that, Savage has picked up Gallo’s zone incredibly well, posting the 4^th best steal rate (4.0%) and 9^th best block rate (2.6%). He’s the true epitome of a ‘3 and D’ player, a categorization we as fans often over use. With Savage however, this classification is apt. And if the defense doesn’t account for where Savage resides on the perimeter at all times – the sophomore has made 43% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot takes this season according to Synergy – knocking off the Warriors in their home confines could be next to impossible. Pick your poison: defend Jordan Minor one-on-one in the post, or double him and risk the ball finding its way to Savage in the corner.

Kenneth Womack, Sacred Heart – With Brendan McGuire reaggravating his hamstring injury in the team’s regular season finale, Womack will once again be asked to absorb the backup point guard duties for Sacred Heart. It’s a small sample, but the football wide receiver and basketball walk-on has done incredibly well filling the backcourt void. Per Hoop Explorer, the Pioneers are scoring 7.8 points per 100 possessions more and allowing 4.8 points per 100 possessions less when Womack is on the floor (for full transparency, it’s 231 possessions on, 1,810 possessions off). His 15-point, 8-assist breakout in a critical overtime win versus FDU was likely an outlier, yet his productive minutes down the stretch versus CCSU illustrates the trust Anthony Latina has in the athletic guard. His crafty finish in the paint with 5:26 remaining and his 2 free throws in the closing seconds of a one-possession game show Womack is ready to embrace the challenge of possibly becoming the most unlikely contributor on a team in the NEC tournament’s top four.

Davonte Sweatman, CCSU – Here’s a fun fact for Blue Devil fans when Sweatman is providing an efficient spark off the bench – CCSU is 6-2 in league play when he posts an offensive rating better than average (100.0). In those contests, the shortest player in the Northeast Conference is shooting 53% from the floor while taking care of the basketball fairly well (8 turnovers in 8 games). It’s clear Sellers trusts him given his crunch time minutes of late as well. If he can provide a spark in the NEC tournament quarterfinal at Saint Francis, the Blue Devils have a real opportunity to steal one in Loretto. In Sweatman’s last game versus the Red Flash, the sophomore poured in 20 points on 10 shots while compiling 5 boards and 4 assists. The playmaking Sweatman is a wildcard for sure.

Enjoy the tournament! 

Plenty of Intrigue in the NEC Awards Race Remains with One Week Left in the Regular Season

Just one week remains in the Northeast Conference regular season! There are several major awards that could go down the wire, so I thought this was a great time to ask myself some questions! Let’s dive right into it.

As a side note: Ron Ratner does a great job here breaking down where all the teams stand with respect to their NEC Tournament positioning. 

Who Will Win the NEC Coach of the Year?

In early February, most people believed one newcomer was a shoe-in for the NEC’s Jim Phelan Coach of the Year honor. 

NEC Coach of the Year Candidates
Tobin Anderson FDU

This one is in the bag baby.

— Major Madness (@low_madness) February 2, 2023

I’m not picking on this Twitter user, as most of us felt this way back on Groundhog Day. But Chris Kraus and Stonehill have really been cooking ever since, pushing Anderson off as a no-brainer for the award. After starting their NEC season at 3-3, the Skyhawks have embarked on a 7-2 stretch in league play to not only improbably catapult FDU in the standings, but also remain in play for a regular season championship. Those lofty goals may have been bruised considerably after their 3 OT defeat at the hands of CCSU, but Stonehill’s inspired play has made this COY honor a legitimate 2-person race, especially with FDU struggling to defend and close out games down the stretch. 

Both programs had low expectations going in. Anderson inherited a 4-win group from a season ago and had to fill 8 scholarships once he got the job deep into the spring. Stonehill was coming off a respectable albeit middle-of-the-pack NE-10 finish and had graduated 4 of their top 8 scorers. I don’t mind anyone making the argument for either guy at this point, especially after FDU was picked tied for sixth and Stonehill ninth in the preseason coach’s poll (I picked FDU fifth and Stonehill eighth in Blue Ribbon, for what it’s worth). Kraus has exceeded our expectations a little more, yet FDU has a small advantage when you break down the overall resume.

	KenPom/ Torvik Rank	Torvik Game Score Avg	D1 Non-Conf Record	NEC Record (Point Differential)	Efficiency Margin in NEC Play
FDU	318/317	27	5-8	9-5 (+52)	+5.3
Stonehill	332/324	25	3-10	10-5 (+39)	+3.9

It’s pretty close. If FDU and Stonehill finish with identical league records, I would assign a slight lean to Anderson given that the Knights’ have had more success in non-conference play with a dominant Quad 3 win at St. Joseph’s leading the way. The minimal edge in a myriad of analytics for league play helps bolster Anderson’s argument as well. Should Stonehill find themselves ahead of FDU in the league standings as of this weekend however, perhaps honoring Kraus off an improbable 11-5 NEC season is the way to go. 

It’s a tight race where both coaches have very good cases to be made. Both have a challenging second year ahead of them with all of their exceptional talent moving on, but neither of these coaches will sneak up on NEC competition ever again.

I should also mention that Joe Gallo’s probable regular season championship with Merrimack puts him in consideration of this award as well, as the coaches have historically rewarded the regular season champs with a coach of the year honor. Merrimack was picked first in NEC Coach’s Preseason Poll though, as many of them, and us, expected the Warriors to be here. That’s why I’d vote Gallo third in this race, although I wouldn’t put anything past a majority of coaches to vote Gallo as COY if both FDU and Stonehill stumbled in their final week. 

What About the League’s Player of the Year?

Just from what I’ve seen with my eyes this season with added weight during league play, I respect anyone who thinks this is a 3-man race between Josh Cohen, Jordan Minor and Demetre Roberts vying for the league’s most outstanding player title.

It’s fitting that all three deserving players are on teams inside the conference’s top 4, as their consistency has been a hallmark for why I’d consider them over anyone else. If you took any of them off their respective roster, that squad would be worse, as Minor’s absence in November can attest. Nevertheless, this is a player of the year award and not the most valuable player, so I’m more interested in the sheer numbers and statistical analysis between the three standouts. 

Player	PPG / RPG / APG	Offensive Rating	eFG%	Torvik PORPAGATU!	KenPom Rank
Josh Cohen, SFU	21.4 / 8.1 / 2.4	119.1	58.3%	4.8 (1st)	1
Jordan Minor, MC	17.1 / 9.3 / 2.3	100.5	51.7%	2.3 (5th)	2
Demetre Roberts, FDU	17.4 / 3.0 / 4.3	108.9	49.6%	2.9 (3rd)	4

Cohen has cracked the 18-point threshold 19 times this season, Roberts 16 times and Minor has done it in 10 times (he missed 6 games in November due to injury). Minor leads Cohen in double doubles, 11 to 5, whereas Roberts has posted at least 5 assists in a game 12 times, and has averaged just 2.2 turnovers in those contests. Cohen leads the group, and the NEC, in points per possession at 1.11 despite a massive usage rate of 29%. Roberts is 18th at 0.97 ppp while Minor sits just inside the top 30 at 0.91 ppp. Minor may have the slightly less impressive scoring analytics, but he’s first among NEC individuals in offensive rebounding rate (15.1% in league play) and second in block rate at 8.1%, as he’s easily the most impactful among this trio on the other side of the ball. 

You can really slice and dice these numbers anyway you’d like, but for me Cohen is the guy. His ridiculous efficiency, wonderful consistency and clutchness in late game situations gives him the POY nod if I had a vote. That isn’t a knock on Minor or Roberts, but Cohen’s been unstoppable in the post. And he’s done it not just against NEC competition, but also versus teams like Miami (30 points on 16 shots, 9 rebounds), Hawaii (40 points on 23 shots, 9 rebounds) and St. Bonaventure (21 points on 11 shots, 7 rebounds). 

As long as Saint Francis doesn’t collapse in these final two games, the 6’10” post dynamo would be my pick. To round out my all-conference first team, I would include Nico Galette and Grant Singleton in my top 5 for those of you scoring from home. And as I alluded to in my ‘Merrimack is Awesome on Defense’ post, I do believe Minor should get the Defensive Player of the Year hardware when it’s all said and done. 

Who’s the Favorite to Win the NEC’s Most Improved Player Award?

Thanks to conference realignment and lots of turnover on NEC rosters this offseason, there hasn’t been a ton of returning players back. Despite this, there still have been credible candidates that have elevated their game to a NEC Most Improved (MIP) level. For simplification purposes, I decided to wade through the choices by using Torvik’s replacement player measure, PORPAGATU!. That metric stands for “Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game At That Usage.” It’s not the end all, be all by any stretch, but for this exercise I found it to be a useful measure to track a player’s improvement from one year to the next. Here were the top 6 improvers using 2021-22 as the starting point:

	2021-22 PORPAGATU!	2022-23 PORPAGATU!	Improvement
Joe Munden, Jr., FDU	-0.8	1.4	+2.2
Josh Cohen, SFU	2.9	4.8	+1.9
Ansley Almonor, FDU	0.6	2.0	+1.4
Joey Reilly, SHU	0.6	1.8	+1.2
Davonte Sweatman, CCSU	0.4	1.1	+0.7
Bryce Johnson, SHU	0.6	1.1	+0.5

I think we have our top three MIP candidates in Joe Munden, Ansley Almonor and Joey Reilly. As last year’s NEC Most Improved recipient, Cohen will be eliminated from my consideration. As a quick aside, Cohen’s PORPAGATU! improvement is actually greater this season than it was going from 2020-21 to 2021-22 where he improved by “just” +1.3. Galette, who I thought was destined to become the 2021-22 MIP only to be denied by Cohen, actually improved his PORPAGATU! by +2.3 as a sophomore. But that’s a debate for another time…

With the pair of FDU’s players and Reilly assigned as my top 3 for MIP consideration, let’s dig a little deeper into each player’s statistical improvement from last season to now:

	PPG Increase	RPG Increase	APG Increase	Another Stat of Note	ORtg Increase
Joe Munden	+5.8	+1.9	-0.2	+19.4% 2PT	+33.2
Ansley Almonor	+10.6	+3.1	+1.3	+0.6 bpg	-5.7
Joey Reilly	+6.7	+0.5	+0.5	+1.0 spg	+7.1

As far as a floor goes, Munden is coming off the most difficult season among this threesome, registering an offensive rating of 73.6 as a sophomore after a promising rookie campaign that saw him rightfully land on the league’s all-rookie team. With that sophomore floor, Munden’s offensive rating improvement as well as his correlating shooting percentages have skyrocketed under Tobin Anderson. He’s been cast this season as a near perfect swingman in FDU’s scheme. 

Almonor’s efficiency has remained above average going from his freshman (small sample) to sophomore season (substantial sample); his biggest difference is a three fold increase in playing time that’s seen his counting numbers surge as a result.

Reilly has effectively done both – his playing time has nearly doubled to 77% of Sacred Heart’s minutes, yet he’s also enjoyed a 6.9% bump in his effective field goal percentage. His possession rate (16.8%) however, isn’t as impressive as Munden’s (24.2%) or Almonor’s (23.9%) and categorizes him more as a role player instead of the leading men that the Knights’ duo has become. 

So who is it? This is another tough call, but I’ll peg Almonor as my guy. The 6’6” center’s insertion into Anderson’s starting five has opened up the Knights offense considerably as opposing bigs must respect Almonor’s ability to make a perimeter jumper anywhere on the floor. He’s more likely than the other two to land on an all-conference team (although I think Munden and Reilly have a chance for the third team) thanks to his current top 10 finishes in scoring (14.1 ppg, 9th), rebounding (4.8 rpg, 10th), 3-pointers made (2.0 per game, 4th) and blocks (0.8 bpg, 8th).

This is nothing against Reilly and Munden, as both have had excellent bounceback seasons in their own right. But for Reilly, his usage rate dings him, whereas Munden exhibited a better level as a rookie before struggling the following season. I give the junior a ton of credit for restoring his game under Anderson, but if we’re being honest Munden’s rookie season with a PORPAGATU! of 0.9 could reasonably be assigned as the benchmark instead of -0.8 from the following year. 

With all of these awards, a lot (including my mind) could change with two games remaining. The debate should be fierce for these honors and the all-conference teams until the bitter end, giving us fans and alums even more excitement when watching the final week of the league’s regular season. There’s great intrigue no matter where you look.

From STAC to Hackensack: FDU’s Demetre Roberts Levels Up

Credit: Larry Levanti

Demetre Roberts was ready to give it another go. After weeks of deliberation with family, friends and coaches, Roberts decided that the pros outweighed the cons for returning to St. Thomas Aquinas College for a fifth season. Despite accomplishing seemingly all there was to accomplish at the individual and team level, the ECC all-conference first teamer was poised for more. A Final Four appearance. Maybe a legitimate run at the Division II national championship. But most importantly, it was a personal goal that drove his decision making process to stick around.

“I think the ultimate goal for me was getting my Masters (degree),” Roberts said when asked for his reasons for why he decided to return to St. Thomas Aquinas, also known as STAC, for the 2022-23 season. “In my family I’m the first one to achieve that goal, so I think that played a part in why I decided to stay at STAC.”

This all could’ve been part of Roberts’ fairy tale ending – right now he may have been in the midst of yet another 25-win season and would soon help STAC embark on another deep run in the Division II NCAA Tournament. It was set up that way, that is until the head coaching position at FDU opened up a few weeks later. And then all hell broke loose when then-STAC head coach Tobin Anderson accepted the job. 

“We’re going to be great next year (at STAC), we’re all fired up and then this whole thing happened,” Anderson explained. “For me personally and professionally if I don’t take this job that might be it. They don’t hire Division II coaches, they don’t do it.”

Both Roberts and his equally successful teammate Grant Singleton fully understood their coach’s reasoning for jumping at the once in a lifetime opportunity. For Anderson, it was a chance to prove himself at a quality Division I school close to home. But that didn’t make it any easier for Roberts and Singleton to digest and assess their current plight. 

“It was a big shocker, it just came out of nowhere but I wouldn’t lie, it definitely took a big hit on me,” Roberts admitted. 

After the news of Anderson’s hiring reached the team via social media prior to the coach meeting with them – the media leak was something that irked Anderson a little – Roberts, Singleton and Anderson huddled together after the team meeting. Anderson was about to leave for his Division I opportunity, although he had some unfinished business at STAC. 

Credit: Larry Levanti

“I told them ‘I love you no matter what. You don’t have to come (to FDU), but there’s an opportunity for you at Division I,” Anderson said to them in the impromptu and ultimately awkward meeting. 

For Singleton, it didn’t take long to decide that following his coach was in his best interest. “I needed a little bit of time to think about it, talk it over with my family,” the fifth year shooting guard said of the process. “It was an easier decision than I thought when I came to visit FDU, just being in the same system, better facility…”

Unlike his close friend and longtime teammate, Roberts needed more time to contemplate his options. If he was going with Anderson, a couple of weeks to figure things out were a must.

Eventually, the deliberate and thoughtful Roberts was on board. “I think the good part about that (situation) was he had the opportunity to bring us with him, so I think that kind of cooled everything down,” he said. 

The lightning quick point guard has never been one to make a rash decision. Back in high school at Mount Vernon, Anderson offered the dynamic, yet diminutive floor general as a junior despite the overall lack of interest in the 5’8” guard’s services. Back then, it really only was STAC and Division II counterpart LIU Post that offered Roberts, but nevertheless a lengthy waiting game ensued. 

“I recruited him all through his senior year and literally, he’ll tell you this too, he would not return (my texts and calls),” Anderson said with a smile of the arduous recruiting effort to sign Roberts. “I would text him 50 times for every time he returned my text, he would never return a text.”

Roberts was playing tough to get mainly for his wish to eventually garner some Division I interest. That interest never came, and soon after it was Mount Vernon head coach Bob Cimmino assuring Anderson that Roberts would eventually come around. It was late in the senior’s season, and Anderson decided to visit Roberts and his team during a state semifinal playoff game. At the time, Anderson was preparing to interview for a head coaching position at another school, and he felt confident he’d get the job and leave STAC. Despite this, he decided to attend Roberts’ game and keep his commitment to the high motored point guard. It was 12-plus months of recruiting up to that point, what was another weekend in the grand scheme of things?

The encounter turned out to be a positive for both parties, and after the job opportunity unexpectedly fell through, Anderson was told by Cimmino that Roberts was ready to visit STAC. The rest, of course, is history with a marriage between coach and player that has been greatly fruitful for both sides. The proof is in the pudding with 96 wins in four seasons and several Sweet 16 NCAA tournament appearances at STAC. 

“He wants to play professionally, so for a guy like his size and his background he’s going to have to be the hardest working guy, the toughest guy and that’s what he is,” Anderson says of his guard who’s now logged 129 career games, all with the long-time head coach. 

Credit: Larry Levanti

Now with FDU sitting at a perfect 5-0 in Northeast Conference league play, the transition from Division II to Division I hasn’t been much of an adjustment, if at all. The confident, yet humble Roberts isn’t shy to admit this. 

“I think it’s more fast paced in the NEC than the ECC, (but) we’re all basketball players, I feel like it’s the same competition,” Roberts said of the adjustment to Division I. “You just go out there and play basketball, everything else will just take care of itself.”

With more than a half of a Division I season logged, Roberts game is taking care of itself as the graduate senior finds himself third in scoring (17.0 ppg), first in assists (4.1 apg), sixth in free throw percentage (78.0%) and fifth overall in KenPom’s “Northeast Conference all-KenPom.com” rank among all NEC players. His explosive ability to score, facilitate and cause mayhem, all while staying perfectly in control – his 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio is also 5th in the league – has all of the opposing coaches on notice.

“He’s got a little (former UConn guard) Shabazz Napier in him because he has the ball on a string, he puts you on his heels with the dribble and he can shoot it from deep,” Central Connecticut State coach Pat Sellers said of Roberts, who scored 18 points on 10 shots in FDU’s recent road victory over the Blue Devils. “And he’s really quick, he’s quick and he’s a tough kid.”

With roughly six weeks to go in the regular season, Roberts still has a final chapter to write in his collegiate career. One thing is for sure though, he’ll always cherish what Anderson has given him on the hardwood. 

“He’ll risk it all just for us to succeed,” Roberts said of Anderson. “He’s a gritty coach who wants the best out of his players. Everyday he’s going to push us, obviously he’s doing it just to get positive outcomes.”

A Historical Look at Other Division II Transfers Who’ve Impacting the NEC

Given the immediate successes of Roberts and Singleton as Division II transplants, and others such as Stonehill’s Andrew Sims, Isaiah Burnett and Max Zegarowski, I wanted to take a historic look at previous Northeast Conference mainstays who were Division II transfers. Credit to NEC diehard Matt Mauro for piquing my interest on the topic:

According to Torvik's PRPG!, 5 of the top 14 players in the NEC were playing D2 basketball last season (Singleton, Roberts, Zegarowski, Burnett, and Sims).

Seems like bringing in experienced D2 guys from the Portal could be a market inefficiency.

— Matt Mauro (@TheMidRangeJump) January 17, 2023

After polling a few people, it’s clear that the Division II transfer list is decidedly small, as until recently the vast majority of dominant transfers have either come from other Division I institutions or the junior college ranks. But allow me to mine through the few impactful Division II transfers to illustrate the ones who were most successful at playing basketball in the conference.

Jare’l Spellman, Sacred Heart

Anthony Latina’s recruitment of Spellman from Division II Florida Southern went a bit under the radar, yet the 6’10” center’s impact was immediate the moment he stepped on the floor against Division I competition. He may have been lanky, yet that didn’t stop his tenacious effort at protecting the rim at an elite level. Spellman collected a school record 183 rejections and corralled 160 offensive rebounds in just 2 seasons, and it was his first season (11.9% block rate, 12th in D1) that led to a deserving NEC Defensive Player of the Year selection. Alongside rugged double double machine E.J. Anosike, the Pioneers boasted one of the most imposing 2-way frontcourts, with the duo mainly responsible for a Sacred Heart defensive efficiency that rose to the league’s top 3 during the 2019-20 campaign. 

Raekwon Rogers, Wagner

The pieces of contention were in place for Bashir Mason’s Seahawks going into the 2021 offseason, yet it was the astute recruitment and signing of Rogers, a Henderson College standout, that served as the final piece to Wagner’s puzzle in a league rife with accomplished 4th and 5th year players. Rogers, a graduate senior himself, was just what the doctor ordered for the Seahawks – he served as a stout, efficient and at times athletic post presence who embraced the physicality of being a NEC five-man. On a team loaded with stars such as Alex Morales, Elijah Ford and Will Martinez, it was Rogers among the Wagner regulars who led the team in KenPom offensive rating (116.1), offensive rebounding rate (12.7%) and 2-point field goal percentage (60.4%), leading to an all-conference third team selection in his lone year on Grymes Hill.

Tedrick Wilcox, St. Francis Brooklyn

Glenn Braica has been a champion of ushering in ready-to-contribute transfers for several years running, but Wilcox was Braica’s first real Division II signee who’s produced at an above average level. Currently, Wilcox sits inside Bart Torvik’s top 20 NEC players with respect to the replacement value metric PORPAGATU!, and it’s with good reason. Wilcox burst onto the scene last season at St. John’s with 19 points and 5 made triples, and since then the swingman has cast himself as the perfect blend of shotmaking, versatility and toughness to man the 3/4 position on the floor. He’s accepted the mantle of being St. Francis Brooklyn’s leading scorer over the past 3 contests, posting a combined plus/minus of +17 while scoring 1.27 points per possession per Synergy. The former Dominican College stud has all-conference upside, and he’s certainly flashing that now.

John Bunch, Monmouth

This one goes way back, but at 7-foot-2 and 320 pounds Bunch was surely memorable as a center in Dave Calloway’s attack. Much like Spellman, Bunch used his size and instincts to his advantage on the defensive end, swatting away and altering shots like none other in his time. During his senior year in 2006-07, Bunch registered the third highest block rate in the country at 17.6% and that was after posting a 16.2% block rate as a red-shirt junior. At Lincoln University, his prior stop before Monmouth, Bunch averaged a dominant 13 points, 12 rebounds and 7 blocks per game, while breaking the NCAA record for most blocks in a game with (get this) 18 rejections! To no one’s surprise, he also finished his senior campaign as a Hawk nationally ranked in offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

Juvaris Hayes, Merrimack

I saved the best for last, even though Hayes technically wasn’t a program transfer having spent his entire collegiate career under the tutelage of Joe Gallo at Merrimack. He did however, much like Sims and Burnett at Stonehill after him, transfer to the Division I level with the Warriors reclassification to the Northeast Conference, and did he ever dominate in his lone year. Not only did he eventually break the NCAA’s career record for steals at 457 thefts, but he also earned a spot on the NEC’s all-conference first team as well as become the league’s defensive player of the year with a league leading 121 steals and a NCAA Division I leading steal rate of 6.5%. His impact offensively was impressive as well with a 38% assist rate (12th in D1) and 19 games cracking the double digit threshold in scoring. Can someone please arrange a one-on-one contest between Hayes and Demetre Roberts, pretty please?

An Analytics Driven Breakdown of the NEC’s Non-Conference Season – Part 2

Photo: Larry Levanti

In the first part of my non-conference breakdown and look ahead for the NEC, I summarized the bottom 4 teams in the table below with respect to Bart Torvik’s regular season odd. For Part 1, go here.

Now, I will offer my analysis on the next 5 teams and how I feel they stack up when league play begins this week.

Team	Mid-Major Record	Projected NEC Record (KenPom)	Bart Torvik Reg Season Title Odds (Share)
Wagner	4-1	11-5	50.3%
Sacred Heart	5-5	9-7	14.7%
SFU	1-5	8-8	34.2%
FDU	4-5	8-8	11.7%
SFBK	4-3	8-8	7.8%
CCSU	2-7	8-8	5.6%
Stonehill	3-4	8-8	5.2%
Merrimack	0-8	7-9	2.4%
LIU	0-5	5-11	0.4%

St. Francis Brooklyn

Non-Conference Summary: The Terriers have quietly put together a productive non-conference season, winning four games they were supposed to win (Saint Peter’s, Delaware State, Hartford twice), while staying competitive against mid-major teams in UMass Lowell (KenPom #116) and Longwood (KenPom #150) that could be considered favorites to get an auto-bid berth to the NCAA tournament through their respective conferences. Per Synergy, Glenn Braica’s group currently leads the league with a 0.84 ppp defensive mark, as they’ve been effective in holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45% in half-court opportunities, putting them in the top 73 percentile in college basketball. To no one’s surprise, a tenacious effort on the perimeter has led the sixth best defensive three-point rate nationally (26.5 3PA/FGA) thereby forcing opponents to beat them inside the arc, where the Terriers have rejected 10.9% of their opponent’s shots (83rd in D1). This team is defending at a much higher level compared to last season, that much is evident through 12 games.

Photo: Larry Levanti

Best Performance: A wild comeback at home versus Saint Peter’s qualifies as the Terriers’ best performance, as the team outscored the Peacocks 8-0 over the final 2 minutes to execute the come-from-behind victory. At one point, Saint Peter’s possessed a 90% probability to secure the win according to KenPom, but St. Francis’ resolve pushed them to the finish line in its last game at the Pope Center. Once again, the defense shined through with a 0.85 ppp effort, buoyed by holding Saint Peter’s to 31% shooting inside the arc and a splendid 0.24 A/TO. Winning ugly with defense has always been Braica’s calling card when St. Francis is firing on all cylinders, and his team’s triumph that November evening versus a MAAC rival was yet another example of that.

What St. Francis Brooklyn Needs to Do to Succeed: While the defensive profile looks promising, the Terriers could benefit with more offensive efficiency in the half court. Only three times against Division I competition have they scored at least 1.00 ppp in a game, and all three instances were against teams in KenPom bottom 10 of adjusted defensive efficiency. Much of the team’s inefficiency has been due to the Terriers’ reliance on jump shots, as they account for 50% of the team’s total takes. It’s one thing to rely on catch-and-shoot jumpers (good), but St. Francis at times has fallen in love with off-the-dribble shots (mainly bad), posting a 38% eFG on 109 “dribble jumper” attempts per Synergy. If you consider the team’s improvement when taking shots in rhythm (47% eFG on 195 attempts), it certainly would behoove Braica’s squad to shy away from isolation basketball and share the rock as much as possible. Currently, the team is 273rd nationally in assists per field goals made at 48%, and only two players (Rob Higgins at 22.2% and Tedrick Wilcox at 20.7%) have assist rates north of 20%. As a small ball 4-man, I’d expect Wilcox (93.1 offensive rating compared to 104.5 last season) to heat up against the smaller frontcourts of the NEC, and an efficiency bump would be a welcome site for Terrier fans.

If there’s one thing to nitpick with the defense, it’s that St. Francis has struggled to keep opponents off the offensive glass. In a 2 possession defeat versus Longwood for example, the Terriers allowed the Lancers to collect 14 offensive rebounds for a 40% offensive rebounding rate. In tight games going down to the wire, limiting second chance opportunities could be the difference between going 8-8 (5 or 6 seed?) or 10-6 (3 or 4 seed?) in league play. 

FDU

Non-Conference Summary: All Tobin Anderson has done in his first non-conference season with FDU was re-establish the Knights as a credible NEC contender, and that’s despite inheriting just five scholarship players from last season’s 4-win roster and getting the gig fairly deep into the spring. With a mostly turned over roster, everyone was put on blast on opening night when FDU was merely one more defensive stop away from pulling off an Atlantic 10 upset at Loyola Chicago. Anderson’s Knights continued their heartbreak tour despite experiencing heartbreak of their own in the first loss, beating Manhattan, VMI, and thoroughly bludgeoning another Atlantic 10 opponent in Saint Joseph’s (more on that later). Through it all, the offense has been the driving force, besting the league in points per possession at 0.92. Their green status on KenPom’s page in turnover rate on both ends (16.8% TO rate offensively, 21.5% TO rate defensively) has also allowed them to reel off six victories, as FDU continues to win a turnover margin battle on a game-by-game basis that Anderson holds near and dear.

Photo: Larry Levanti

Best Performance: Despite coming into Saint Joseph’s as a 16-point underdog per KenPom, the Knights flipped the script with a 12-1 run (kill shot!) late to give the NEC another impressive road victory after downing the Hawks, 97-80. Anderson’s reliable and heavily leaned upon threesome of Grant Singleton, Demetre Roberts and Ansley Almonor combined for 69 points, achieving this production on a startling 35 field goal attempts. The turnover margin battle was won (+6), as was the rebounding margin at +2 despite the smallish Knight rotation. And in all, it was an offensive masterpiece, with shooting percentages of 63% 2PT, 50% 3PT and 81% FT.

What FDU Needs to Do to Succeed: Improving the defense is the obvious answer, as in many ways it’s been turnovers or bust when it comes to FDU stopping their opponents to score. Knight opponents have shot 60.4% from inside the arc, and have had success filling it up from deep with a 36% conversion rate on 3-point attempts. Most of this, to Anderson’s admitting, is the Knight’s small lineup and their aggression in the backcourt when trying to generate live-ball turnovers. It’s something Anderson and his staff will focus on when NEC play commences this week, as an adjusted defensive efficiency of 114.5 points allowed per 100 possessions isn’t sustainable for long-term success (just ask Anthony Latina and Sacred Heart last year). Nevertheless, if FDU can get to the 108.0 adjusted DEff level strictly in league play, the offense and positive turnover margins can absolutely be a recipe for success.

Health is also paramount, as slashing guard Heru Bligen has missed the past 5 games as he works his way back from a concussion. Bligen currently is second among league mates with a 1.21 ppp mark, and bests all players with a 65% field goal percentage. Joe Munden, Jr. also recently missed time due to a concussion, but since returning he’s been fantastic in Anderson’s schemes, posting a career high 2PT percentage of 59% in a small sample of 7 games. Depth is important for most teams, but it’s especially critical for an Anderson led up-tempo attack that hangs its hat on frenetic full-court pressing and getting up the floor off opponent miscues. If he doesn’t have 8 to 9 guys he can trust outside of the Roberts/Singleton/Bligen/Almonor/Munden grouping, then tired legs will have a brutal time keeping NEC offenses at bay down the stretch in tightly contested games.

Saint Francis U

Non-Conference Summary: From a wins and losses standpoint, this veteran Red Flash group underachieved throughout November and December, logging just one Division I victory in 11 games and dropping 24 spots in KenPom’s rankings since the season opener.  They were competitive at various points throughout the non-conference season however, especially in guarantee match-ups, hanging around at Miami, St. Bonaventure and Hawaii before letting those games get away in the second half. It’s somewhat of an oddity when highlighting the disparity between Saint Francis’ first and second half scoring margins, as the Red Flash sit at -4 points in the first half in all of its Division I contests, while the margin negatively balloons to -131 points for the second half! Krimmel’s group has been in every game through 20 minutes for the most part, and yet only twice have they matched or beaten an opponent’s scoring output in the second half. Perhaps better depth in January and February could quell this disparity.

Photo: Larry Levanti

Best Performance: It’s time to put an individual player in this category, as it’s been an incredible first half for Josh Cohen. The big man has cracked the 20-point barrier six times this season, while pouring in 98 combined points (on 58 shots!) versus Hawaii, Miami (FL) and Robert Morris in Saint Francis’ last three contests. He currently sits in the top 98 percentile in half court offense according to Synergy, registering a ppp mark of 1.25. He’s made 71% of his takes at the rim, converted 59% of his post-ups and leads the NEC in “and 1s” with 18. Quite literally, the junior has been unstoppable versus low mid-major, regular mid-majors and even high-majors opponents, but unfortunately his play hasn’t led to a sustained run of the Red Flash winning games. Nevertheless, he’s the early frontrunner for NEC Player of the Year due to his sheer dominance at playing basketball.

What Saint Francis Needs to Do to Succeed: It’s never fair to pin a team’s playoff hopes on one player, but Ronell Giles is so important to Saint Francis’ future success. An early injury at St. Bonaventure didn’t help things, as the junior proceeded to miss the next 8 games before finally coming back from a bad ankle. It’s taken some time for the playmaker to get back into a rhythm, but scoring a season high 12 points on 10 shots last time out versus Robert Morris is surely a welcome sign. Maxwell Land has struggled with his outside shot (27% 3PT) and that combined with an increased turnover rate of 18% (it was 12.8% last season) has sunk Land’s efficiency at the moment. Other veterans such as Marlon Hargis and Brad McCabe have underperformed relative to expectations as well, but I’d like to think that Giles insertion into the rotation will eventually elevate Saint Francis’ overall play. 

One thing I’m certainly optimistic about: Landon Moore (103.4 offensive rating) and Wisler Sanon (116.2 offensive rating) have impressed as rookies and filled vital holes that were evident this preseason. Sanon is third on the team with a 1.14 ppp mark and 62% eFG per Synergy, whereas Moore has steadied the ship with respect to the point guard position. If the veterans can eventually elevate their game, Krimmel has a very solid 7 to 8-man rotation ready for deployment in NEC play. Much of this is fueled by Cohen’s excellence, but Saint Francis does have the second best adjusted offensive efficiency in the league at 97.9 points per 100 possessions. If the team can start making outside shots (34% eFG on jumpers inside of 17 feet and 25% eFG on jumpers between 17 feet and the 3-point line via Synergy), then I love the prospects of this offense with Cohen as the obvious focal point. 

One last thing: for Saint Francis to return as a NEC contender, they’ll need to protect their home court in Loretto. Over the past 2-plus seasons, the Red Flash are just 8-17 in their friendly confines, a far cry from their once dominant days during a four year run from 2017-2020. 

Sacred Heart

Non-Conference Summary: It was a mixed bag in the non-conference for Sacred Heart with victories against teams they were supposed to beat, but losses where they failed to put it together for 40 total minutes. The Fairfield loss was especially cruel; the Pioneers seized control in the second half before going the final 3-plus minutes without scoring, and thereby allowing Celeb Fields to snatch victory from a game where Fairfield had a 18% probability to win just minutes early. Despite that gut punch and a -16 scoring differential in a second half at Stony Brook, five Division I wins are… well five Division I wins.

Photo: Larry Levanti

Best Performance: Sacred Heart’s win at Binghamton raised my eyebrows, not because of the double-digit victory on the road, but because the team turned in its best defensive performance since the days of starting rim-protector Jare’l Spellman and elite rebounder E.J. Anosike in its frontcourt. Bart Torvik’s Game Score took notice as well, issuing a season high Game Score of 62 with the Pioneers allowing just 0.87 ppp to Binghamton. It was the type of inspired defensive effort that Latina implored his team to take part in for what seems like seasons, as last year the Pioneers had one of the worst adjusted defensive efficiencies in all of Division I. Now, they stand at a more respectable adjusted defensive efficiency of 107.9, which is a stark improvement from a 115.5 mark in 2021-22.

What Sacred Heart Needs to Do to Succeed: Injuries have been mostly a problem for everyone, yet Anthony Latina has only had his full rotation available to him for exactly the first 20 minutes of the season at Hartford. While it’s presumed everyone, including Aidan Carpenter and Brandan McGuire, will be readily available in their conference opener opposite of Stonehill, they won’t have had a chance to hone their chemistry in game action before the real season starts.

While Latina is comfortable with his offense especially with McGuire back facilitating, it hasn’t been a seamless transition from a pick-and-roll heavy attack spearheaded by Aaron Clarke and Tyler Thomas to a ball motion offense dictated by selflessness and dribble drive penetration. The McGuire and Carpenter absences have been mainly responsible, yet the Pioneers will need more consistency out of their do-everything forward Nico Galette. The junior has been consistent in reaching double figures in scoring every game, yet an increased possession rate of 27% (186th nationally) in year three has predictably led to poorer efficiency in various facets of his game. Could the inefficiency wane now that the Pioneers are finally healthy and playing against similar sized frontcourts? That’s certainly logical, but nevertheless Galette needs to somehow finish better in transition (66% FG in 2021-22 versus 49% FG in 2022-23) and when spotting up (35% FG in 2021-22 versus 32% FG in 2022-23) to give Sacred Heart a chance to compete for its first regular season title in NEC history. 

Wagner

Non-Conference Summary: No team has illustrated as much consistency in the first half of the season as Wagner, as Donald Copeland has fully embraced the identity Wagner has been known for under Bashir Mason: scoring balance, a tenacious defensive effort, and an ability to punish opponents for their mistakes. The win at Temple was a statement from the get-go, but Wagner’s true resolve may have come out a mere two days later in a defeat at La Salle, where the Seahawks took a pounding in the first half (-15 scoring differential through 12 minutes) only to impressively storm back to close La Salle’s gap to 4 points right after the final TV timeout of the second half. That resolve stuck versus Fairfield (more on that soon) and in ugly, yet hard fought victories late over NJIT, Stony Brook and Delaware State. Really, there’s no disputing that Wagner had the best non-conference season.

Photo: Larry Levanti

Best Performance: In a game considered a coin flip by KenPom prior to the opening tip (Wagner was a 56% favorite), the Seahawks outscored the Stags 37-23 in the opening half, never letting Jay Young’s group believe there was ever a realistic chance of victory. A late Stags “kill shot” (10-0 run) made the game somewhat interesting late, but as has been the case all non-conference season, Wagner closed out the contest by scoring in 9 of its final 11 possessions. The defense held Fairfield to 0.85 ppp and a 0.70 A/TO, forcing a desperate team to wait for their first Division I victory of the young season. 

What Wagner Needs to Do to Succeed: With the non-conference season going according to Copeland’s plan for the most part, who am I to critique Wagner’s next steps to yet another NEC regular season crown? Mason in his 10 seasons has finished in the league’s top 2 six times, and Copeland’s team has put themselves in position to at least get off to a quick start. The team is wonderfully balanced with nine players averaging between 5.3 and 11.8 ppg. While that scoring delegation illustrates the players’ willingness to sacrifice personal stats for the betterment of the team, I’d like to see the backcourt of DeLonnie Hunt and Zaire Williams start to assert themselves more often than not.

Hunt has already popped the 13-point threshold six times this season – Wagner is 5-1 when this occurs – yet Williams has struggled to get into a shooting rhythm since returning from a knee injury that cost him three games in November. Thus far the dynamic sophomore has shot just 21% on his jump shots per Synergy, so getting out in transition and downhill in the half court could be the best elixir for Williams as he attempts to break out of his shooting slump. A career 63% conversion rate on shots near the rim shouldn’t be ignored just because Williams is desperate to help stretch the opponents’ defense. An inside/out approach could pay dividends, especially if Javy Ezquerra (43% 3PT) and Jahbril Price-Noel (49% 3PT) continue to light it up from deep. 

And there is Wagner’s proclivity to foul (51.5 FTA/FGA, 360th nationally) that usually gives opponents a decided edge per game at the charity stripe. Despite the excess hacking, Copeland isn’t at all concerned with the fouling, and to be fair Wagner’s intensity would likely wane if they weren’t putting opponents into the bonus by the second to last TV timeout of each half. Nonetheless it’s something to watch, especially in games that go down to the wire.

Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Northeast Conference Men’s Hoops Season

The 2022-23 season is almost upon us! And I’m back to bring you #NECMBB content on the NEC Overtime! Blog.

One of my favorite writers is The Athletic contributor Eno Sarris. The baseball/fantasy baseball/craft beer scribe seamlessly blends analytics, his eyes and intel from other sources to tell an informed story. It’s what I strive to do every time I write a post! 

One of his annual columns I most enjoy is his MLB Bold Predictions piece in March. In there he’ll do his best to make an educated, albeit partly outlandish guess for where a player or team might finish. Sometimes he’s right (Logan Gilbert was the best pitcher on the Mariners), sometimes he’s close (Texas’ Nate Lowe finished 3 homers short of Sarris’ 30 HR prediction), and sometimes he – pardon the pun – swings and misses (Joey Votto did not come close to hitting 40 HRs). 

Forgive me as I try to copycat Sarris with my own bold predictions post for the 2022-23 Northeast Conference season. I’m basing my educated guesses on what the coaches have told me about their squads and underlying statistics/analytics. Here are five boldish predictions that, if things break right, have a respectable chance to come to fruition.

Sacred Heart’s Brendan McGuire Will Lead the League in Assists Per Game

When Sacred Heart lost scoring point guard Aaron Clarke to the transfer portal this spring, many wondered where Anthony Latina would go for his next floor general. There was no obvious replacement on the roster – Joey Reilly and redshirt freshman Dom Mello are best off-the-ball in my humble opinion – so Latina leveraged one of his strengths as a head coach: he recruited the transfer portal to identify talent that would immediately upgrade his roster. Enter Brendan McGuire, a somewhat atypical floor general given his 6-foot-7 forward-like frame. 

McGuire averaged 2.6 apg under Baker Dunleavy at Quinnipiac in three seasons, so why do I think the Long Island native can find another level as the main facilitator in Sacred Heart’s system? Given Latina’s insistence on re-establishing a faster tempo, McGuire will be asked to advance the ball at every opportunity and utilize his vision and playmaking skill in the open floor. Think about the Pioneer offense under freshman Cam Parker in 2018-19, or Pioneers all-time leading assist man Phil Gaetano in 2014-15. Both pass-first guards thrived offensively in Sacred Heart’s two fastest seasons (relative to DI) under Latina with a bevy of finishers/shooters to feed such as Evan Kelley, Cane Broome, Sean Hoehn and E.J. Anosike.

Point Guard	Year	Team Possessions per Game	Team Offensive Efficiency	Player Assists per Game	Player Assist Rate
Phil Gaetano	2014-15	68.5 (22nd DI)	103.4 (3rd NEC)	5.8 (1st NEC)	30.9% (76th DI)
Cam Parker	2018-19	72.0 (23rd DI)	104.2 (3rd NEC)	6.9 (1st NEC)	37.8% (11th DI)

With playmakers abound at Sacred Heart such as Nico Galette, Raheem Solomon, Aidan Carpenter and sharpshooter Mike Sixsmith, McGuire should not lack options to feed the ball to. He routinely posted assist rates in the mid 20s at Quinnipiac; it wasn’t his skill but rather his inconsistent playing time that ultimately limited his overall assist totals.

Herein lies my boldish part of the prediction – in order for McGuire to average the 5.0 – 6.0 apg likely needed to become the conference’s leader, he must stay healthy and log a career high in minutes. McGuire’s coming off a 2021-22 campaign where he missed 11 of the Bobcats’ 31 games, and that’s what reportedly has sapped the point forward’s full potential to this point. It’s a matter of good health, a 72+ possessions per game pace and a gut feeling that it will all come together for McGuire in year four of his collegiate career. With his move from the MAAC to the NEC, he also enters a conference plentiful with scoring point guards (Nigel Scantlebury, Demetre Roberts, DeLonnie Hunt, to name a few) who aren’t likely to put up an overwhelming volume of assists. Based on the league’s recent history, 5.0 apg could be the magic number for McGuire to become the league’s assist leader, and that number is possible based on what I’ve heard out of the Pioneer camp.

The Red Flash Will Regain Its Spot as the League’s Best Offense

We knew it was going to be hard for Rob Krimmel to replace his back-to-back NEC Player of the Year stalwarts in Keith Braxton and Isaiah Blackmon after their graduation in 2020, but that was before a 100-year pandemic and plethora of injuries infected Krimmel’s roster over the past 2 seasons. The long-time coach has shuffled through 22 starting lineups since the fruitful 2019-20 campaign, greatly affecting SFU’s rotational consistency. It’s led to mediocre offensive performances:

Season	Points per Game	Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	3PT%	FT%	Unique Starting Lineups
2017-18	79.0	106.4 (1st NEC)	37.1	77.2	8
2018-19	76.3	105.5 (2nd NEC)	35.3	71.2	8
2019-20	77.7	107.6 (1st NEC)	36.0	75.1	8
2020-21*	68.9	94.7 (7th NEC)	30.9	71.4	9
2021-22	68.6	95.1 (7th NEC)	31.5	64.5	13

*pandemic shortened season, only played 22 games

Talent always wins out, but it’s paramount to have good health and luck on your side too, and that’s been lacking in Loretto of late. During a productive four year stretch where the Red Flash made three NEC tournament finals from 2017-2020, the team’s stars routinely played at least 70% of SFU’s minutes (aka 28 minutes in every game). Red Flash players satisfied that minutes threshold 11 different times over that stretch, with the bulk of that met by all-conference first teamers Jamaal King, Braxton and Blackmon. Over the past two campaigns, junior guard Maxwell Land was the only player to cross the 70% minutes mark, achieving the feat once in 2021-22. 

Now with a healthy roster back along with reinforcements at the point guard position, Krimmel appears poised to get back to his bread and butter: efficient offensive basketball. The team’s shooting must vastly improve and return to the 35% 3PT/70% FT level during the program’s contender phase for this to happen. Several current players, in fact, have already illustrated their shotmaking prowess at one time or another in a Red Flash uniform. It simply needs to come together for one season with this collective group:

Player	Year	KenPom Offensive Rating	3PT %	FT %
Maxwell Land	2020-21	95.5	41.1%	71.4%
Marlon Hargis	2020-21	125.5	41.7%	81.2%
Myles Thompson	2021-22	98.5	38.7%	63.9%
Brad McCabe	2021-22	111.8	41.3%	80.0%

It’s fair to be optimistic about the Red Flash’s shooting if you assume the following: 1) mostly everyone will stay relatively healthy, 2) the guards/wings will continue to progress in year three of Krimmel’s system and 3) the players won’t be overburdened with too much on their plate given the program’s depth.

The last statement is particularly important, because if SFU can get a league average contribution at the point guard position from incoming freshmen Landon Moore and Cam Gregory and/or upperclassman Zahree Harrison, who’s considerably more trimmer this preseason, then the aforementioned veterans shouldn’t be tasked with more than they can handle on the basketball court.

“Some of it is just guys being in a position where they can play to their strengths,” Krimmel said at NEC Media Day in October. “When you have a roster that is depleted for different reasons, guys have to do on top of what they do really, really well.”

Quite simply: less is more. If every player can reduce their usage rate slightly and become more specialized toward their strengths, then the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts. The program already boasts the league’s most efficient post presence in Josh Cohen (117.7 offensive rating, 57.7% 2PT), thus better playmaking and perimeter shooting could be what the doctor ordered for getting SFU back to being an elite and well balanced offensive unit once again.

Fairleigh Dickinson’s Trio of Division II Transfers Will All Land in the League’s Top 15

If you just look at the car without looking under the hood, I understand why FDU projects as a bottom third team in the conference to an algorithm. The Knights have a new coach, a roster with 8 new scholarship players, and are coming off a difficult campaign thanks to a defense that allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions. The analytic sites such as KenPom, Bart Torvik, and others simply aren’t estimating the impact of the Knights incoming transfers, three of which come from Division II, hence the bearish projections.

For starters, Bart Torvik’s player replacement metric PORPAGATU! greatly devalues the Division II transfers in Demetre Roberts (0.3 in PORPAGATU!), Grant Singleton (0.3) and Sean Moore (0.3) despite their successes at St. Thomas Aquinas College (STAC). Let’s use Roberts as my main example: the three-time East Coast Conference (ECC) first team selection is coming off an impressive senior season. Those gaudy numbers may not translate perfectly into NEC hoops, but even a modest downtick across the board produces far better than a 0.3 rating. Comparing his Division II numbers to another diminutive, yet speedy point in Jalen Benjamin tells the story:

Player	Year	PPG	APG	RPG	A/TO	eFG%
Demetre Roberts	2021-22	16.4	4.2	2.9	1.8	53.1
Jalen Benjamin	2021-22	13.3	4.0	2.5	1.6	45.8

The overall speed shouldn’t be much different between the top half of the ECC (where STAC always resided under Anderson) and the NEC, but the effective height will play up. Given this, let’s assume Roberts’ 2022-23 numbers tick downward and possibly mirror Benjamin’s production at the Mount last season. Even still, Benjamin produced a 2.0 PORPAGATU! (t-13th NEC) in 2021-22, well above Roberts’ current projection at 0.3, which doesn’t make a ton of sense.

The same case could be applied to Singleton and Moore, with the latter offering more upside defensively. As a STAC freshman a year ago, the 6’4” forward anchored the front of Anderson’s full court press and earned two Defensive Player of the Week awards. His blend of athleticism, length, and instincts – a similar profile also possessed by returning junior Joe Munden, Jr. – could wreak havoc for some NEC backcourts, and allow Roberts, Singleton and others to hunt steals for easy buckets in transition. There’s nowhere to go but up for FDU in transition – last season the Knights were last league wide in effective field goal percentage during transition opportunities with a mark of 48.9%, according to Hoop Math. That number, along with a middling defensive turnover rate of 18.2% (185th DI), should be a lock to improve thanks to the STAC talent coming to Hackensack.

It also helps that Anderson isn’t a stranger to rebuilding quickly. Back in his inaugural season at STAC, Anderson inherited a downtrodden 5-win program and engineered an impressive 10-win turnaround in year one. I’m not guaranteeing the Knights will be victorious 14 times in 2022-23, but even a more modest win output could find FDU within title contention come February. If that’s the case, the trio of STAC transfers will have emerged as leading players within the conference.

Central Connecticut State Posts Its Best Offensive Output in a Decade

While FDU’s defense has a great opportunity to improve, the same could be said for Pat Sellers’ offensive unit. The Blue Devils last season struggled at times to score, failing to convert many of their inside the arc opportunities (42.6%, 353rd DI) while also struggling with turnovers during stretches (20.6% turnover rate, 310th DI). CCSU went 5-2 in games where they averaged more than 1.00 point per possession in a contest, and posted a 3-22 mark when scoring 1.00 ppp or less. The low hanging fruit for the squad in New Britain is the offense!

As you all know, Sellers enters his second season, which usually helps when it comes to improving offense with a rebuilding program. Take a look with how these NEC programs improved in their second year of rebuilding with a new head coach:

Team/New Head Coach	First Year Adjusted ORtg	Second Year Adjusted ORtg	Difference
SFU/Rob Krimmel	93.4	96.4	+3.0
Mount/Jamion Christian	102.5	107.8	+5.3
SHU/Anthony Latina	99.3	103.4	+4.1
CCSU/Donyell Marshall	93.0	98.0	+5.0
Mount/Dan Engelstad	94.8	96.4	+1.6
CCSU/Pat Sellers	91.5	?	?

If Sellers’ offense trends similarly, he can take solace in that Nigel Scantlebury and Andre Snoddy return. Scantlebury, a pick-and-roll dynamo who’ll make 3s off the catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble, illustrated his scoring moxie late last season, averaging 20.8 points buoyed by a stout 48.5% free throw rate in the last 5 games of the season. The next step is to improve upon his 49.8% mark near-the-rim, while also honing his shot selection to whittle down his mid-range 2-point attempts. Those progressions are reasonable for a fifth year guy entering his second year with Seller’s “space and pace” concepts. 

Snoddy has the opposite program – his penchant for scoring inside the paint would become even more potent with a complimentary perimeter game. It’s something the sophomore – a 6-time NEC Rookie of the Week honoree last season – has assiduously worked on this offseason. I would certainly bet on Snoddy topping his 26.7% 2 and 3-point jumper percentage as a freshman by a healthy margin.

Additionally this offseason, Sellers wisely recruited more scorers to feature alongside Scantlebury and Snoddy, with Binghamton wing Kellen Amos and JUCO transfer guard Jay Rodgers joining the fray. While the two returning stars have their demonstrated strengths, Amos and Rodgers offer versatility, potentially giving the Blue Devils a more well rounded team on the floor. Amos’ lanky frame poses mismatch problems at the wing, and his “3 and rim” prowess – he made 60% near-the-rim last season per Hoop Math – will surely help a Blue Devils’ team that made just 51.5% of their near-the-rim takes last season. Rodgers, on the other hand, isn’t shy about getting downhill and finishing in traffic, and that’s complemented by a 40.1% conversion rate from deep at Cochise College last season.

Throw in second year players Jayden Brown, Joe Ostrowski, Davonte Sweatman and the expected jump they’re capable of, and I’d be very surprised if CCSU stays the same from an offensive efficiency standpoint as KenPom suggests in 2022-23. Like Saint Francis University, I see big things ahead for CCSU’s offense to the point where they could exceed the Blue Devils’ best offensive output in a decade. That would require a 6.0 jump in adjusted offensive efficiency in order to top Howie’s Dickenman’s 2013-14 squad when they posted an adjusted offensive efficiency of 97.4. That’s a big jump (these are bold predictions after all!), but nevertheless you should buy stock now on Seller’s offense. 

Rahmir Moore Will Lead Wagner in Scoring and Land in the NEC’s Top Five in the Same Category

Opportunities are plentiful in a league that lost much of its older talent, mostly via graduation. Some of those opportunities reside in Grymes Hill where after a fantastic 2021-22 campaign, the Seahawks start fairly anew after graduating five highly accomplished super seniors, including two-time NEC Player of the Year and one-time Defensive Player of the Year Alex Morales. Donald Copeland takes over the head coaching reins from friend and mentor Bashir Mason, and it’s because of those ties that I believe things stay the same for Wagner. Copeland said as much during NEC Media Day when asked if anything will change with Wagner basketball now that he’s in charge.

“I can’t say a whole lot,” Copeland admitted. “The motto is defense and toughness, so that’s what it’s going to be. Like Bash, I was raised that way within the game. It’s hard for me to just get off of it now.”

If you’re tough and willing to defend, you’ll enjoy more offensive freedom and more playing time. This is a major reason why Saint Joseph’s transfer Rahmir Moore should see the court quite a bit in his first season as a Seahawk – his defensive versatility, physical build and tenacity has been lauded by the Wagner coaching staff this preseason. The opportunity to score the ball on a team that graduated its top four scorers from a season ago is there as well.

“Those were two premier scorers in our league, Alex (Morales) and Will (Martinez), and there’s potential for that with Rahmir,” Copeland said when asked about how Moore compares to last season’s offensive talent.

Under Mason, the Seahawks thrived at attacking the rim and scoring in the mid-range, eschewing analytics and its love for ‘3 and Rim’ concepts in the process. With Morales, Martinez and Elijah Ford illustrating efficient pull-up jumpers while also thriving off the bounce, it was easy for Wagner to embrace the old-school approach while not sacrificing offensive efficiency. The same should now apply to Moore, who’s older brother Ramone was a standout player at Temple more than a decade ago.

At Saint Joseph’s under Billy Lange, Moore attempted 51.4% of his shots near the rim. Of his 58 makes by the rim in two seasons, only 15 of those were assisted, meaning Moore did well getting downhill and generating scoring looks by himself. A move from the Atlantic 10 to the NEC will make it easier for Moore to finish among opposing 4s and 5s, thus an improvement from a 46.4% conversion rate on near-the-rim attempts, per Hoop Math, makes sense.

Combine Moore’s skill set with a group of complementary guards led by Zaire Williams and DeLonnie Hunt, and he should fit in well as the off-the-bounce bull who makes a living at the charity stripe (career 73.8% FT). For me, Moore’s inevitable progression to a double digit per game scorer is exactly what Wagner needs, and if he matures to the 15 ppg level, then he’ll emerge as one of the premier scorers in the league.