Amid All of the Injuries, Wagner and Copeland Still Finding Its Way


Donald Copeland isn’t eating or sleeping much these days.

Despite Wagner’s recent two-game winning streak, which has included dominant home victories over Saint Francis and Stonehill, Copeland and his coaches are busy racking their brains with how to manage a team in an unprecendented situation.

Due to a rash of injuries that’s resulted in six of Wagner’s 13 scholarship players being out for a prolonged period of time, Copeland has rode with seven dressed players over the past four games. Remarkably, Wagner is 3-1 and playing some of its best basketball of the season. The Seahawks have allowed just 0.94 points per possession, forced oppoents to shoot 39% from the field and has attempted 26 more free throws over that stretch.

“I haven’t seen this before. I haven’t seen this as a player, I don’t think there’s a script to it,” Copeland said of leading his severely shortened rotation. “I’m still learning as I go.”

With a roster already significantly compromised with long-term injuries to veterans Rahmir Moore (wrist), Zaire Williams (knee) and Rob Taylor (shoulder), things improbably took an even worse turn right after Christmas. Copeland was hoping to get his players’ blood pumping after the Christmas holiday with live 3 on 3 ahead of their non-conference finale at Manhattan. That was when Di’Andre Howell-South, fresh off an encouraging 16-point, 3-assist performance versus Gwynedd Mercy, hurt his knee.

Howell-South, along with a few other Seahawks, won’t return to the hardwood this season.

The relentless injury hardship has continually forced Copeland to get creative with how he keeps his healthy guys fresh and fit during practice. It’s gotten to the point where Wagner’s assistant coaches, and even Copeland himself, are jumping into practice to work on certain things.

Donald Copeland

“We have dummy offense for a lot of things. I try to move them as hard as I can, I still get after them a little bit…” he says. “It’s going to be a fluid thing, I have to play it by feel. The last thing I want is anybody getting hurt in practice to be honest with you.”

And then there’s dealing with the precariously thin rotation during games. Keyontae Lewis and Melvin Council, each playing a lionshare of minutes for obvious reasons, were compromised late in the second half of the LIU game due to cramping. Tyje Kelton rolled his ankle earlier in that contest and had to limp around to the bitter end.

Julian Brown

Then there was the Saint Francis pregame where Copeland got word of Julian Brown feeling nauseous and throwing up prior to the game. While Brown admirably gutted it out to score 19 points on 13 shots, Copeland ended up having both of his big men, Lewis and freshman Seck Zongo, foul out late. Wagner was literally down to its last five bodies in the final minute of the Red Flash win.

The constant churn has decentized Copeland to the point where he’s numb to the information coming to him.

For what it’s worth, the shortened rotation has galvanized the program. Over the past four games, the Seahawks have an assist on more than two thirds of their baskets and a splendid assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.8. The latter stat has been a theme for Wagner all season – they currently have the 59th best offensive turnover rate (15.5%) in college basketball with a number of players – Melvin Council, Brown and Tahron Allen – doing well to protect the ball.

“That’s our brand of basketball, you know,” Copeland said after Stonehill’s win when asked about the elite assist numbers. “We’ve always preached sharing the ball and we’re at our best when we’re doing that. Our shooting numbers are a reflection of that…”

Javier Ezquerra

The Seahawk Seven model has forced players to step up. Brown, now a sophomore coming off a freshman tilt where he played just 20% of the team’s minutes, has made ten 3s, dished out 15 assists and committed just two turnovers in Wagner’s three conference games.

“He has a chip on his shoulder that he has something to prove,” Copeland said of Brown, who’s made 37% of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts this season. “Him, like Javy (Ezquerra), they are playing for me as an undersized guard and I’m very demanding of it and he answers to it, man.”

Like Brown, another player originally destined for second unit work was Allen. The lefty transfer from Monmouth has not only been a revelation for Wagner in the scoring department, but he’s also added a perimeter element to his bully-ball profile. The high percentage from three – 63% to be exact – surely wasn’t expected when Copeland recruited Allen this offseason, but it’s been a much needed boon to Wagner’s offensive prospects.

Tahron Allen

“He has one of the best looking shots on my team,” Copeland said. “And all summer he’s making them in our workouts, then we go live and he’s hestitant and I’m getting on him ‘shoot it, shoot it or you’re going to come out.’”

Throw in the steadiness of Council as the transition/slashing dynamo and Ezquerra as the steady floor general and Wagner has emerged as a wounded, albeit dangerous team in the Northeast Conference.

“I have tough kids that are good kids – they’re not making excuses for themselves and we don’t allow it,” Copeland said of his players. “I’m not going to let us quit, I’m not going to just pack it in. We’re going to fight, man, we’re going to fight.”

Inside the Defensive Numbers

Keyontae Lewis

Because of the injuries, Wagner has played significantly more zone compared to last season. The Seahawks have spent 16.6% of their defensive possessions in some kind of zone, compared to 4.8% last season, according to Synergy. Copeland’s shift to a more hybrid defense has given the program more options to stop opponents, as evident from the numbers.

 Points per Poss AllowedPPP Percentile RankeFG% Defense
Man-to-Man Defense0.81984%46.4%
Zone Defense0.79781%40.7%

In Monday’s win over Stonehill, Wagner held Stonehill to 54 points on the back of their man-to-man defense, yet the demanding Copeland wasn’t exactly waxing poetic about how the Seahawks stymied Chris Kraus’ group.

“The defense hadn’t been what it needed to be, up to my standards and still even today I’m not happy with the fact that (Stonehill) shot over 52% in the second half,” he said. “I think that can’t happen regardless if we’ve got 7, 10, whatever guys we have, that has to be better.”

With a difficult stretch of schedule ahead of Wagner – Merrimack twice, Sacred Heart and CCSU once in the next four – the shorthanded group will need its defense to keep themselves in games. It’s also possible that some players, namely Zae Blake and Churchill Bounds, could eventually find their way back into the rotation.

For now though, the Seahawk Seven is what Wagner is. And they are doing just fine at the moment.

Melvin Council Jr.

Central Connecticut Flashing Its Upside After An Inspired December Run

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

For the first time in five seasons, the Central Connecticut program has broken into KenPom’s top 275. The Blue Devils recent road upsets over UMass Lowell (10% underdog) and Fordham (19% underdog) have led to an in-season ascension in two well respected rankings: 47 spots in KenPom land and 45 spots in Bart Torvik’s standings.

The climb is certainly warranted with the Blue Devils owning the second best adjusted offensive efficiency and third best adjusted defensive efficiency in the Northeast Conference. And it’s even better if you extrapolate CCSU’s data since their dismantling of Army on the road back in late November.

How exactly has Pat Sellers turned the program into a legitimate contender in year three? There are a number of factors I’ll break down here.

The Defense Is Playing Up

If we’re being honest, the defense has been a low hanging fruit of improvement for CCSU over the past decade. With Sellers’ latest batch of graduate transfers infused into the program, he may have finally found the right rotation to mimic those excellent Howie Dickenman defenses of yesteryear. 

“We’ve been more aggressive on ball screen coverage, up on our pick and roll defense, our bigs are not sitting back, we’re up on the ball now,” Sellers says regarding the Blue Devils significant defensive improvement. “And obviously being older, guys understand the system now, they can figure things out…. They can make adjustments on the fly and that’s helped us a lot.”

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

Those adjustments have allowed the Blue Devils to move into KenPom’s top 250 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 107.6 points per 100 possessions, their best efficiency rating since the 2011-12 season. In layman’s terms, the squad has gotten more turnovers (on 18.8% of opponent’s possessions), protected the rim (getting a block on 11.7% of opponent’s possessions) and has done well to limit second chance opportunities (1st in rebounding defense in the NEC). It also helps that CCSU has the 86th best mark in Division I when it comes to limiting the opponent’s 3-point attempts with a 34.4% 3PA/FGA mark. 

More specifically, the inclusion of newcomers Allan Jeanne-Rose and Jordan Jones has sparked a defensive revival in New Britain. Jeanne-Rose came with a notable defensive pedigree built on athleticism, intuitiveness and versatility at Fairfield whereas Jones’ quickness and instincts led to a second place finish last season in total steals in the Southern Atlantic Conference, a league that his Division II Coker University resided in. 

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

Sellers explains how the two have benefited from one another based on a defensive drill executed to perfection recently in practice. 

“The other day in practice we were doing some defensive drill and [Jeanne-Rose] screams at Jordan to switch (on defense), and Jordan switched and as soon as he switched the ball was right in his hands, he stole the ball. Jordan goes down and lays it up, and he comes back looking at AJ saying like ‘I can’t believe you did that.’ He’s like ‘I’ve never seen that before.’”

It’s no wonder both are making a massive difference when playing together. According to Hoop Explorer, the Blue Devils have given up 12.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor.

Experience can be invaluable and right now CCSU has an optimal blend of defensive stalwarts who’ve been honing their craft for several years running. The Blue Devils undoubtedly have top 2 defensive potential that could get them to the top tier of league contenders if they maintain that level.

Space and Pace is Finally Coming to Fruition 

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

The transition game has become a weapon for CCSU.

It’s an unlikely place to start, yet Sellers credits his team’s efficient upswing in transition opportunities to an encounter with a Hall of Fame coach at a surprise birthday party. It was there in September that Sellers sat down with Jim Calhoun, his former boss at UConn, to discuss high tempo basketball at Howie Dickenman’s birthday celebration.

“I’m sitting with Coach Calhoun and he said ‘Pat, you said you want to play fast right?’” Sellers recalls of their discussion. “And I was like ‘yeah.’ And he said, ‘Well you better do fast break drills, you know what we did at UConn, at least 15 minutes a day at practice.’”

The conversation was a revelation for Sellers, especially after he perused UConn’s old practice plans back when he served – both as a DOBO and Assistant Coach – under Calhoun from 2004 to 2010. The Huskies back then were led by shifty, efficient guards such as Marcus Williams, A.J. Price, and Kemba Walker and rim running bigs like Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong and Hasheem Thabeet. UConn would annually reside inside the country’s top 100 of adjusted tempo thanks to a daily devotion of transition drills in practice. 

Since installing high tempo drills in every CCSU practice after the chance encounter with his mentor, Sellers has witnessed the benefits.

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

“You can tell because now our guys are so good at getting the ball up, deep outlets and getting the ball up up ahead to open shooters. And our guys are rim running, so it’s because we practice it everyday,” Sellers says.

The proof is in the pudding – no one in the conference is more efficient in transition, and it’s led to CCSU getting out on the fast break one out of every five possessions according to Synergy. That’s the second best mark among leaguemates, and their points per possession (ppp) numbers in such situations lead the NEC and are 28th nationally. Just note the stark improvement from last season:

Transition eFG%Transition PPPTransition TO ratePoss Per Game% of Time in Transition
2021-2260.3%1.07 14.5%64.612.3%
2022-2358.3%1.0612.0%64.212.3%
2023-2467.5%1.2112.0%69.020.3%

Once again, Jones’ insertion into the lineup has been a boon to the team’s prospects when running a high tempo offense. 

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

“Jordan is such an elite athlete, he can get the ball from point A to point B so quick and fast,” Sellers says of his point guard, who owns a 59% eFG and an elite assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.7 in transition. “He gets the outlet, there are very few guys that can stay in front of him because he’s so fast and strong.”

Jones’ teammates have also benefited greatly, willingly running down the floor and finishing with superb efficiency. Run and gun basketball is a lot of fun when it’s executed well! Case in point:

  • Joe Ostrowsky in transition: 79.4% eFG, 1.36 ppp, 9.1% TO rate
  • Jayden Brown in transition: 78.6% eFG, 1.43 ppp, 8.6% TO rate
  • Allan Jeanne-Rose in transition: 66.7% eFG, 1.19 ppp, 16.7% TO rate
  • Kellen Amos in transition: 59.2% eFG, 1.11 ppp, 6.7% TO rate

Add it all up and Sellers’ opening press conference declaration of incorporating “Space and Pace” has officially taken shape. It’s obvious that the pace part is working, and the Blue Devils’ spacing has yielded a respectable 34% mark from long distance versus Division I foes. And just wait when Amos rounds into mid-season form with his perimeter jump shot as historic trends indicate.

The Blue Devils Are Cleaning Up Around the Rim

More credit goes to Blue Devils superfan Matt Mauro for enlightening me on CCSU’s rim numbers, thereby starting my deep dive:

It’s one thing to embrace the analytic friendly approach of nothing but “rim takes and 3s”, yet it means nothing if you don’t have the right personnel to execute such a philosophy. It understandably took Sellers 3 years to compile an efficient collection of slashers, in-the-paint finishers and playmakers to make CCSU’s shot profile more akin to scoring. 

Now, the Blue Devils have taken nearly half of their shot attempts near the basket, which currently ranks in the top 94 percentile in all of college basketball. Given the near-the-rim percentages, it’s been a wise strategy to say the least.

% Shots at RimRim FG%Points Per Shot (PPS)PPS National PercentileDunks Per Game
2021-2232.1%49.7%0.991%0.8
2022-2338.6%54.3%1.0914%2.2
2023-2447.4%60.2%1.2066%2.8

One player who’s been somewhat responsible for CCSU’s efficiency down low is junior center Jayden Brown. He’s made a career high 60.0% of his rim takes this season, up from 50.6% as a freshman. As is the case for a majority of collegiate bigs, Brown just needed more time to develop his game inside the paint. 

“He understands how to play, he’s almost like a guy that would be in the ‘over 40’ league,” Sellers said of Brown, who’s shooting a career best 51.5% from inside the arc. “He just knows how to play basketball, it was just the confidence part, like finishing against contact and all of those things and now in his third year he’s much more confident.”

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

Additionally, Jeanne-Rose has done some heavy lifting at the rim (68.8%) with the league’s leader in KenPom offensive rating, Tre Breland, trailing just behind with a 65.4% mark. 

The Blue Devils ability to get two feet into the paint on drives, both in the half court and in transition, has undoubtedly made the team more efficient as a whole. It’s no surprise that five Blue Devils are boasting a KenPom offensive rating north of 100.0 – when a majority of your shot attempts are within 6 feet of the basket, your efficiency will climb as a result. 

It’s a new day in New Britain with CCSU in position to play meaningful basketball deep into the conference season. The preseason expectations of Sellers’ group were lofty, yet the Blue Devils have shown their upside after a splendid five weeks of non-conference basketball. If they continue to hit on all cylinders with respect to their defense, transition game and ability to finish around the rim, a return to the Big Dance would be a distinct possibility. 

Get your popcorn ready – the NEC regular season should be exciting!

Photo: Steve McLaughlin

The Kids Are Alright: NEC Rookies Illustrating Their Potential One Month In

The Northeast Conference may be a veteran’s league loaded with great players such as Nico Galette, Ansley Almonor, Allen Jeanne-Rose and Jordan Derkack, yet there have been several NEC rookies that have impressed in the early going. It’s not easy to play well in the throws of non-conference basketball, yet these upstarts have impressed me to the point where highlighting their early season accomplishments is worth it. 

Please allow me to describe the games of four rookies who I believe are onto a path of stardom down the road, and maybe as early as later on this season.

Adam “Budd” Clark

This will be the only time on this blog that I refer to the 5’10” Merrimack freshman as Adam, as his preferred moniker of Budd is deserved moving forward. Since the start of the season, Budd has registered eight games in double figures while demonstrating a special type of playmaking skill most freshmen could only dream of, let alone a sub 6-foot rookie. 

It’s a small sample size of 10 games, yet Clark already is nationally ranked in KenPom in assist rate, free throw percentage and steal rate. His impersonation of last season’s NEC Rookie of the Year is spot on, and Clark has done it thus far against five programs residing inside the top half of KenPom (Ohio State, Vermont, Samford, Georgetown, Florida):

  • Budd Clark: 97.2 ORtg, 48.8% eFG, 24.4% assist rate, 22.3% turnover rate, 5.3% steal rate
  • Javon Bennett: 86.8 ORtg, 42.9% eFG, 27.3% assist rate, 21.9% turnover rate, 5.6% steal rate

What’s gotten Clark to a high level of production is impeccable body control, an ability to get to any spot on the floor with the ball in his hands, and a quick first step. According to Synergy, Clark has been particularly lethal in isolation, scoring 1.00 point per possession while making 7 of 11 shot attempts in such situations. Take this example versus Maine:

Or this blow-by on the baseline against a strong Samford team. 

I can wax poetic on Clark’s playmaking skills all day and night, but his well roundedness is perhaps his most dangerous attribute. Like Bennett, Clark is flashing a steal rate north of 5.0% and has elevated the Warriors zone defense when on the floor. He’s the two-way weapon most coaches could only dream about from a freshman, yet it’s Gallo and this staff’s norm to find undersized yet extremely talented two-way guards. It started years ago with Juvaris Hayes, continued with Bennett and now carries over with Clark. 

The idea that Clark, currently the league’s steal leader, will continue to improve will be a scary proposition for league counterparts once NEC play commences. I mean, how exactly do you guard this pull-up?

Eric Acker, LIU

It’s been a difficult start to LIU’s season. Only once has the program faced a team outside the KenPom 250 and it’s the Sharks only win – an impressive 15-point triumph over Texas A&M Corpus Christi at a neutral site. In that game, it was Acker going off with a game-high 22 points by draining 4 triples, making 4 baskets inside the arc, grabbing 9 rebounds and dishing out 4 assists. Overall, the freshman leads all LIU players in made field goals by a considerable margin and is fifth league wide in points per game.

Like the majority of freshman guards, Acker may be a little turnover prone in the first inning of his collegiate career, yet there’s a lot to like with a 2-point field goal percentage of 52% and a 3-point percentage of 35%. His overall ability to make jump shots – he’s ranked in the top 74 percentile among Division I players with a 1.09 points per shot mark according to Synergy – is much needed after Rod Strickland’s team registered just 0.89 points per shot on jump shots as a team last season. 

Furthermore, he’s been a weapon as a pick-and-roll ball handler for Strickland, with a 67% effective field goal percentage in such situations when he takes a shot.

Acker’s athleticism and quick hops will sure come in handy for a team that loves to get up the floor in transition, too:

The schedule gets even harder for the Sharks over the next three games, but once Acker and his teammates settle into conference play, it’s fair to expect a bump up in the 6’2” guard’s efficiency. Strickland already trusts Acker by deploying him for heavy minutes, and that on-the-job training should pay dividends in the latter half of the season. His talent will routinely shine through come February and March.

Bobby Rosenberger III and Eli Wilborn, Saint Francis U

It’s the underclassman show in Loretto, and the comeback kids are already making some noise after surviving an arduous start to their 2023-24 season. Once Rob Krimmel’s group got their guarantee games and a long California trip out of the way, they put together a 4-1 stretch including two come-from-behind wins on the road. Not bad for one of the least experienced teams in the country!

  • Minimum win probability at Lehigh: 1.4% (trailed 61-55 with less than 1 minute remaining, won 62-61)
  • Minimum win probability at American: 1.1% (trailed 65-53 with more than 7 minutes remaining, won 75-73)

For context, just 3 NEC teams were victorious during the 2022-23 season after having a minimum win probability of 1.4% or less. One of those games was FDU’s epic upset of Purdue in the NCAA tournament, but I digress!

Let’s talk about the reason why Krimmel’s cardiac kids mounted impressive upsets; it starts with the freshman duo of Bobby Rosenberger and Eli Wilborn. Rosenberger was described as a “winner” this preseason after leading Perkioman School to its first PISAA state title in program history. With winning in his blood and an athletic pedigree from a father that played college football, Krimmel liked what he saw when recruiting Rosenberger.

“He can do a lot of different things,” Krimmel said this preseason about his do-it-all freshman. “He can shoot it, he plays extremely hard, he can score around the rim. He’s a good athlete, not a guy who’s going to wow you with it, but one of those kids when you look up, he’s winning a lot.”

In the two victories at Patriot League schools, Rosenberger combined to register 27 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and 6 made 3s. It wasn’t an overly flashy stat line in either game, yet a deeper dive into the analytics really bolsters the case for how valuable the freshman has been. 

His month-long catch-and-shoot numbers (51.7% eFG) are solid, he’s finished well at the rim (54.2%), and he’s posted an elite effective field goal percentage of 76.7% in transition opportunities. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, a glue guy, a Swiss Army Knife, feel free to bestow any praise you’d like regarding Rosenberger, but I’ll simply call him a winner. He plays like a veteran who doesn’t get sped up or overwhelmed in the big moment, and when you can do that and illustrate an above average ability to score a multitude of ways, that’s invaluable to a young team learning on the fly.

Eli Wilborn, in his own right, has had plenty of influence in the Red Flash’s recent run of success. Let’s start by allowing Saint Francis to illustrate the reigning NEC Rookie of the Week’s versatility as an inside/out big.

His long 2-point jumper late at American, while not analytically pleasing, was clutch and the go-ahead shot that allowed Saint Francis to overcome a 20-point first half deficit and win their second straight road game. While he’s shown an ability to stretch the floor at times, it’s his rugged presence down low that’s a nice complement to the Red Flash’s bevy of slashers and shooters. 

He’s been efficient near the rim (60.5%) and has served as a critical cog in Krimmel’s pick and roll game. His range has made him rather unpredictable – ice the ball screen and Wilborn can pick and pop (6 for 7, 85.7%), or hedge the ball handler and Wilborn will burn you rolling hard to the basket (2 for 2, 100%). These are all small samples, mind you, but they illustrate a special versatility for a big man that was known as a double-double machine in high school at Middletown, Connecticut. 

Throw in a 5.8% block rate (156th nationally) and a 19.7% defensive rebounding rate (296th) and you have a heady, versatile big who is sure to carve out a useful role for an upstart team loaded with potential. Expect Wilborn to continue to do some damage as a frontcourt piece for Saint Francis.

Breaking Down FDU’s Unprecedented Upset – The Greatest in March Madness History

Photo: Paul Vernon

I didn’t think much of it back in October when friends asked my wife and I if we wanted to attend a Muse concert at Madison Square Garden on St. Patrick’s Day. Cool, I thought, without giving the NCAA tournament much of a thought. After our run of seeing Rage Against The Machine, The Killers and Arcade Fire in 2022, adding Muse to the concert list would be fun!

Well, that’s my bad. Thankfully with the help of my IPhone and Youtube TV account, I was able to catch the last 5 minutes of Fairleigh Dickinson’s improbable and historic upset, even if my wife glanced over a couple of times as my two friends and I hunched over a cell phone during a sold out concert at the world’s most famous arena.

The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights gave my friends and the nation all the feels on Friday night, becoming only the second number-16 seed to dispatch a number-1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Going in, 16 seeds were 1-150 in such matchups, yet FDU remarkably kept it close with the Big 10 regular season and tournament champion before shutting down the Boilermakers in the closing minutes. Tobin Anderson called his shot after FDU’s dominant First Four victory over Texas Southern!

The Knights were clearly unafraid of the big moment, refusing to succumb anytime Purdue made a run. The Boilermakers posted 2 “kill shot” 11-0 runs during the contest – one in each half – yet FDU never allowed Purdue to extend their advantage past 5 points in either situation. It was a masterpiece that will go down as the greatest win in Northeast Conference history after KenPom pegged Purdue as a 98% favorite going in. Now, the Knights are still alive as they embark on a second round NCAA tournament matchup with Florida Atlantic on Sunday night at 7:45 PM. 

While much has been written about FDU’s triumph over Purdue, and deservedly so, allow me to break down how exactly the Knights pulled off the biggest upset in the history of the NCAA tournament. How was Anderson and his coaching staff able to craft a near perfect game plan and will the Knights to a Bart Torvik Game Score of 96?

FDU is Finally Defending

Photo: Paul Vernon

I’ll admit I was skeptical of FDU’s viability in February and March because of their inability to defend. At one point in mid February, the Knights possessed the first or second worst defensive efficiency in the country and that was despite forcing opponent turnovers at a near elite rate. On Friday night, the Knights effectively did both – they forced 16 Purdue turnovers (on just 64 possessions) while holding the much bigger Boilermakers to 0.91 points per possession (ppp). 

The defensive output wasn’t an isolated performance. Over the past 4 games, FDU has given up just 0.92 ppp while holding opponents to a paltry 17% from deep, with both statistics encompassing the Knights’ best defensive stretch of the season. Some of that depressed 3PT percentage is rooted in luck, yet credit is due to FDU for speeding up Purdue’s playmakers and making life as chaotic as possible in the half court. 

There were some open looks that Purdue missed for sure – Synergy estimates that Purdue missed 14 clean looks from behind the arc – yet this buys into the notion that the moment was too big for the Boilermaker players and not for FDU, the shortest team in Division I basketball. 

Back to FDU’s defensive prowess: the 7’4” Zach Edey may have logged an impressive 21 points, 15 rebounds and 3 blocks, yet arguably the best post presence in the country didn’t attempt a single field goal in the final 8 minutes of the contest. Thanks to a series of doubling and fronting the post, Edey barely touched the ball in the closing minutes. That was a testament to FDU’s speed and savvy in making sure the Purdue center never got comfortable in the low block. 

Edey’s disappearance down the stretch and FDU’s facilitation of that was impressive in its own right, but also consider that FDU held Purdue players not named Zach Edey to a 28.6% shooting percentage. It took awhile, but Anderson’s group has really leveraged their speed, quickness and length to inflict chaos on the floor. 

Sean Moore Has Arrived

Photo: Paul Vernon

In October I offered a bold prediction where I theorized that Demetre Roberts, Grant Singleton and Sean Moore would all emerge in Tobin Anderson’s rotation as Division II transfers who would be top 10 players in the NEC by the conclusion of the 2022-23 campaign. My prediction was somewhat right – Roberts and Singleton had fantastic seasons and earned all-conference first and second team honors, respectively. Moore didn’t make an all-conference team however, but make no mistake, the sophomore simply needed a little more time to adjust to the rigors of Division I basketball. I can say with confidence now that there aren’t 10 players in the league who are better than Sean Moore, as the athletic wing has made his presence felt on both ends of the floor. 

Moore’s defense has been there all season – he currently has the 104th best steal rate (3.2%) in the country and has collected 10 blocks over his past 8 contests – but of late the STAC transfer has been a revelation offensively. Let’s compare and contrast Moore’s first 7 games and last 7 games this season. It’s night and day, quite frankly. 

PPG2PT%3PT%A/TO
First 7 Games (FDU 2-5)7.0 ppg34.8%18.5%0.30
Last 7 Games (FDU 5-2)13.3 ppg59.1%40.7%1.83

Moore’s 3 to extend FDU’s lead to 5, 61-56, with a minute remaining was a kill shot in its own right, surging the Knights’ win probability from 47% to 76% with his top of the key triple. This is big time.

Then in the closing seconds, Moore’s defensive mastery came out as well!

FDU will lose Roberts and Singleton after the two veterans exhaust their eligibility when FDU’s magical run concludes this season, so expect Moore to become a centerpiece to the Knights’ offense in the years to come. He is that good and showing his true colors when the lights shine brightest. 

FDU Won the Turnover Margin Battle, Again

It’s one of Anderson’s most important stats, turnover margin. Take care of the basketball and extract live ball turnovers and you’ll win most of your contests. On Friday, the Knights did just that by bettering the Boilermakers by +8 in turnover margin and posting a +10 margin on points forced off turnovers (15-5).

For the season, FDU has the 32nd best defensive turnover rate nationally at 21.5%. Couple that with the 61st offensive turnover rate at 16.4% and the Knights have one of the best percentage differences in turnover rate across the Division I landscape. FDU is now 7-3 on the season when they extract a turnover on at least 25% of the opponent’s possessions. Their turnover rate versus Purdue on Friday night was… 25%!

Regardless of the Knights’ outcome on Sunday night versus Florida Atlantic, it’s been a wonderful season for Anderson and his Knights. Take a deep breath, buy some merch (see below!), and we’ll see you on Twitter on Sunday night as the nation roots for the FDU Knights to make history once again. I promise I won’t be at a concert this time around.

Two Things That Summarize Merrimack’s Awesome NEC Run

Coming off one of the more memorable NEC Tournament finals we’ve seen in recent memory, now is the time to reflect back on just how dominant Merrimack was during the conference season. Joe Gallo’s group excelled in 2023, victorious in 15 of 18 games while extending their current winning streak to 11 games. It’s the nation’s fourth best winning streak, and if Tuesday night’s championship was the end of their magical 2023 run, they’ll likely conclude with the country’s longest winning streak going into 2023-24.

I’m sorry, but some of the analytic algorithms need to tweak their formulas to properly access where Merrimack stands among their Division I brethren.

Bart Torvik’s ranking feels more correct at 286, but truthfully the overall analytics don’t really matter here. What Merrimack has done, both this year and throughout the entirety of its Division I reclassification process, is remarkable. Two regular season championships. One tournament title in its first ever appearance. And they’ve done it with a lean, but exceedingly efficient coaching staff.

How special was Merrimack’s run in 2023? Allow me to make two points for why the Warriors had one of the best conference seasons in quite some time.

The Defense Was Historically Good

In what many would consider a meaningless game with the regular season championship already wrapped up, Merrimack and Gallo actually had plenty to play for with respect to their last game before the conference tournament. A great defensive effort at the WRAC versus LIU would catapult the program to a new heights with respect to adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s exactly what Gallo’s group did with Merrimack holding LIU to 0.77 points per possessions (their second best effort of the season versus D1 teams), forcing 24 turnovers and generating a starling 34 points off those Shark miscues. Just another day at the office!

With all due respect to the other great NEC defensive units in the KenPom era (21 years), Merrimack’s defense deserves to be recognized as the GOAT when you also throw in these caveats:

  • Merrimack’s turnover rate is currently first in the nation; the Warriors extracted a turnover on an incredible 26% of the opponent’s possessions.
  • Merrimack’s steal rate is also the country’s best with a theft on 16.6% of the opponents’ possessions.
  • Despite the zone’s aggression in forcing live ball turnovers, the team had the 58th best defensive free throw rate nationally with a 26.9% FTA/FGA mark

Gallo and his staff have been offering the college basketball landscape – and the entire basketball world for that matter – a Masterclass in how to run an efficient defense. Please appreciate that we all just witnessed a historically dominant defense that’s currently approaching the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Move over Mike Rice, Milan Brown and Dan Hurley, there’s a new sheriff in town!

Merrimack Actually Met Lofty Preseason Expectations

Most of us, myself included, pegged Merrimack as our preseason number one. With accomplished, been-there-done-that veterans Jordan Minor and Ziggy Reid returning, it was easy to talk yourself into Merrimack as the NEC’s premier program going into the 2022-23 season. In Gallo we trust, right?

Some of us may have been nervous after Merrimack struggled through an arduous non-conference season, but eventually Gallo’s unit regrouped and got better as the year progressed.

With Merrimack obtaining both the regular season and tournament titles, the Warriors now become only the second NEC program in 35 years to be the preseason #1, regular season champion and tournament champion. The other program? The great 2012-13 LIU program from a decade ago under Jim Ferry. That team was in the middle of its 3-title dynasty during a breathtaking run that ended with a record of 19-2 versus NEC foes.

When Merrimack can reasonably compare itself to that 25-win juggernaut led by Julian Boyd, Jamal Olasewere and Jason Brickman, you’re doing something right. How’s that for living up to expectations?!

In the end, Merrimack’s awesome second half of the season may not get its proper due because of the non-conference results and the program’s ineligible status with respect to the NCAA Tournament and NIT. Don’t let those two things deflect from the past 10 weeks however, especially given that Gallo brought in 7 newcomers to learn a unique defensive zone that isn’t played much, if at all, at the high school, AAU and prep school levels.

I may not have the time nor the energy to justify calling Merrimack the greatest Division I reclassification team ever, but I feel like this may be true. In four seasons, Gallo and Merrimack have gone 47-25 (65%) in league play. It’s quite simply the best winning percentage of any NEC program in this period.

The rest of the NEC should be terrified if Merrimack returns their full assortment of players going into next year. With a chance to finally qualify for the NCAA tournament in 2023-24, the sky’s the limit for the college hoops team from North Andover. Joe Gallo has built a dynasty up there.